US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's recent visit to China did not produce any specific agreements to ease commercial relations between the two countries. However, her visit, along with recent visits by other US officials, suggest that a new equilibrium in US-China relations is emerging. This fragile balance is based on three pillars: dialing down rhetoric and actions, limited cooperation, and regular high-level exchanges. Both sides are expected to continue their military buildups, competition for influence, and economic disengagement, but they will do so with less bombast. Limited cooperation will be tactical and transactional, with both sides driving a hard bargain. However, there are areas where cooperation may be mutually beneficial. The importance of regular high-level exchanges is also recognized, as they can act as brakes on escalation and allow for crisis management. They are crucial guardrails to prevent potential catastrophe. While this new equilibrium is preferable to a complete breakdown in relations, tensions and crises are likely to continue, as is mutual distrust and hostility. Cooperation on global issues still faces steep odds. The new situation could easily collapse, and a change of administration in Washington in 2025 could derail any unspoken understandings. However, the fact that limited cooperation is possible raises hopes that common sense will prevail on issues beneficial to both countries, and that progress can be made.
The Energy Transition Is Underway. Fossil Fuel Workers Could Be Left Behind.
NY Times
23-07-12 07:00
The rapid shift away from fossil fuels in the US, driven by the rise of renewable energy, is likely to have devastating effects on workers and communities that depend on the coal, oil, and gas industries, according to The New York Times. The Biden administration has promised to help communities hit by the energy transition, but critics, including some economists, climate researchers, and union leaders, have expressed skepticism about whether initiatives such as additional tax advantages for renewable energy projects will be enough. The loss of revenue from mines and plants that close can mean less money for public services such as schools and law enforcement. Research from the Aspen Institute found that areas affected by the decline of coal have seen reductions in employment rates and earnings, as well as an increase in uptake of Medicare and Medicaid benefits and a decrease in population. The Biden administration is offering bonus tax credits for renewable energy projects and has set aside $4bn in tax credits to build clean energy manufacturing facilities in regions affected by mine or plant closures.
Nothing screams great radio like going round and round in circles – at least to mathematicians
Telegraph
23-07-12 06:00
Circles are seen as the perfect subject for radio, as they can be defined mathematically and don't rely on visual descriptions. This definition works in any context and every dimension, just like radio. There is a radio series about the nature of circles, presented by poet Paul Farley, which explores why it is satisfying to close a circle and complete a loop. The series will cover topics such as traffic roundabouts, rollercoasters, and the impossible circuits of artist MC Escher.
Issue of NATO Japan office "still on table" -Stoltenberg
Reuters
23-07-12 14:49
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that the question of whether NATO will open an office in Japan is still being considered. France has put a hold on the plans, arguing that NATO should focus on the North Atlantic area. Other NATO members have said that the office would be small and focused on regional relationships, with no military role. China has also said that it would not welcome such an office in the Asia-Pacific region. Stoltenberg stated that the issue of the office will be considered in the future.
‘Very dangerous’: Russia slams G7 security assurances to Ukraine
Al Jazeera
23-07-12 14:04
Russia has warned Western powers against providing security assurances to Ukraine, stating that it would be a dangerous mistake that would affect Moscow and expose Europe to greater risks. The Group of Seven (G7) countries recently announced an international framework that paves the way for long-term security assurances for Ukraine to boost its defenses against Russia and deter future aggression. Russia's Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called this move "badly mistaken and potentially very dangerous" and said that providing security guarantees to Ukraine would impinge on the security of Russia. He warned that such a decision would make Europe more dangerous for many years to come.
Solomon Islands may lead way as China eyes greater South Pacific role
South China Morning Post
23-07-12 11:44
China's Belt and Road Initiative could shift its focus to the South Pacific following a visit by the Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands, Manasseh Sogavare. During his visit, Sogavare met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and the two leaders agreed to establish a "comprehensive strategic partnership" between China and the Solomon Islands. China has been increasing its presence in the South Pacific, offering increased police training and equipment to the Solomons, which has prompted a response from Australia. Analysts suggest that the South Pacific could become a new focus for China's Belt and Road Initiative.
AI explosion merits regulation to rein in threats, experts say
Reuters
23-07-12 21:39
Artificial intelligence (AI) experts have warned that rapid advancements in the field could exacerbate societal problems and pose an existential threat to human life, highlighting the need for global regulation. The emergence of generative AI, capable of creating text, photos, and videos in response to open-ended prompts, has raised concerns about job obsolescence, economic disruption, and the potential for AI to overpower humans. Experts at the Reuters MOMENTUM conference stressed the importance of safety checks, proper maintenance, and regulation to mitigate risks. They urged regulators to learn from the negative consequences of unchecked growth in the social media industry, such as creating information echo chambers and exacerbating societal divisions. Regulation is already being prepared in several countries, including the European Union and the US. The experts also highlighted the need to guard against the possibility of AI making nuclear weapons more powerful and the risk of eliminating jobs to the point where human skills become irrelevant.
Banks can manage outflow risk in Fed's new payment service system, Mester says
Reuters
23-07-12 20:02
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester has said that the US central bank’s new real-time payment system, FedNow, is being designed in a way that will ensure financial stability should bank stress arise. Mester addressed concerns that the system could exacerbate banking troubles by facilitating fast outflows from financial institutions, potentially leading to bank runs. She stated that banks will have tools at their disposal to mitigate large outflows of deposits, such as limiting the amount of money that can be moved over a given period. Mester also highlighted that banks can plan to tap into Fed emergency lending and private sources of liquidity if needed.
India and Pakistan are at risk of nuclear war as they continue to increase their nuclear capabilities and fail to establish strategic stability or bilateral risk reduction measures, according to an op-ed by Ruhee Neog and Sitara Noor. The authors argue that the future of South Asia is likely to see a competitive nuclear approach, with both countries attempting to acquire nuclear superiority and adopting counterforce doctrines. The lack of political dialogue and effective communication channels increases the risk of any future crisis escalating to a nuclear level.
The price of gold has barely moved for two years despite inflation concerns, suggesting that gold's mediocre returns can be attributed to the rise in interest rates. Gold prices tend to be inversely correlated with real interest rates, so as real yields generated by Treasury bonds have increased, gold has become less appealing. While inflation has risen, long-term expectations have remained well anchored, causing gold to underperform.
Elon Musk warns of ‘Terminator future’ in AI race as Mark Zuckerberg prepares ChatGPT rival
Telegraph
23-07-13 10:10
Elon Musk has warned against the development of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) technology without fully understanding its implications, cautioning of a potential "Terminator future". Musk, who recently launched his own AI start-up, xAI, has repeatedly called for a pause in the rush to develop superintelligent AI. However, he acknowledged that such a pause is unlikely. Musk's rival, Mark Zuckerberg, is also moving forward with his own AI product through his company Meta, which is preparing to launch a commercial chatbot tool. Google has also expanded its AI offering, adding more languages to its AI bot and backing AI start-up Anthropic.
Croft: Wimbledon's AI commentary is stiff, emotionless and will kill humanity
Telegraph
23-07-13 09:24
BBC presenter and former tennis professional, Annabel Croft, has criticized Wimbledon's use of artificial intelligence (AI) commentators, calling it an insult and a threat to her profession. Wimbledon has been trialing AI for highlights on its official app and website on outside courts where no human commentator is present. Croft slammed the quality of the commentary, saying it was emotionless and lacked feeling. Fellow BBC commentator, Andrew Cotter, also criticized the AI version, saying it lacked the emotion required for the biggest moments in sport. IBM, which developed the AI program, defended the initiative, stating that it is meant to complement the human element of commentary, particularly for matches that do not currently have human commentary.
Armine Yalnizyan: The Bank of Canada is still pushing for 2% inflation: But why? And must so many suffer to get there?
The Toronto Star
23-07-13 09:00
Central banks around the world have been raising interest rates in an attempt to achieve their target inflation rate of two percent. However, the author argues that the costs of reaching this target may outweigh the benefits. The rate hikes are causing economic shocks and engineered recessions, and the author questions whether the goal of two percent inflation is worth the negative consequences. The author points out that reaching two percent inflation carries significantly higher costs for those who can least afford them. The costs include increased food and housing insecurity and a second wave of cost-of-borrowing rises. The author argues that the costs to human well-being, including job loss and reductions in working hours, are not worth the achievement of the inflation target. The author suggests that the target inflation range of one to three percent is already being met and questions the need to push for two percent inflation. The article concludes that central banks should consider the human costs of their actions and reevaluate the target inflation rate.
Bidenomics is an insult to millions of voters living paycheck to paycheck
Hill
23-07-13 12:00
President Biden's economic policies, known as Bidenomics, are failing to gain traction with voters. Despite touting positive economic data and job numbers, two-thirds of voters disapprove of Biden's economic performance. Many Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and struggling to afford basic purchases. Employment is also a concern, with many Gen Xers still underemployed or unable to find well-paying jobs. Inflation-adjusted wages have not kept up with rising prices, causing financial strain for many households. Wealth inequality is at one of its highest levels, and income disparities remain pronounced. To gain voter support, Biden needs to address these economic challenges and hold the Federal Reserve accountable for its mistakes.
Limitless ‘white’ hydrogen under our feet may soon shatter all energy assumptions
Telegraph
23-07-13 18:59
Scientists have long argued that natural hydrogen could be extracted from the earth at a cost that would undercut methane on price. The US Geological Survey has said that there is probably enough accessible hydrogen in the earth's subsurface to meet total global demand for "hundreds of years". The US Energy Department is drawing up plans to help kick-start the industry, with Viacheslav Zgonnik, a Ukrainian geologist, suggesting that white geologic hydrogen could be so cheap and abundant that it conquers the energy market. However, the cost of green hydrogen is currently $3 to $4 a kilo. It will become cheaper with scale, but getting much below $2 will be hard: 70% of the original energy is currently lost in the making, and it requires a massive electrolyser industry that does not yet exist.
Multigenerational Interview Materials Capture the Stories of Rural-to-Urban Migration to Squatter Settlements (Favelas) in Brazil in the 1960s and Early 2000s
Hoover Institution
23-07-13 16:41
The article discusses the research conducted by American social scientist Janice Perlman on rural-to-urban migration in Brazil in the 1960s and early 2000s. Perlman studied three favelas (squatter settlements) in the 1960s and challenged the belief that migrants living in these settlements were trapped in poverty and marginality. In 2008, she returned to the same favelas and conducted open-ended interviews with the original subjects, as well as their children and grandchildren. These interviews provide valuable insights into the mechanisms and institutions that allowed migrants to survive and prosper in Rio de Janeiro. The interviews have been added to Perlman's collection at the Hoover Institution Library & Archives.
‘As Long as It Takes’: Biden Adds to Talk of a New Cold War
NY Times
23-07-13 22:35
President Biden and his national security team have contended since he took office that all the easy, tempting comparisons between this era and the Cold War are misleading, a vast oversimplification of a complex geopolitical moment. The differences are, indeed, stark: The United States never had the kind of technological and financial interdependence with its Cold War adversary, the Soviet Union, that so complicates the increasingly bitter and dangerous downward spiral in the relationship with China. Nonetheless, the echoes of the Cold War are growing louder. Mr. Biden himself added to the din this week. In Vilnius, Lithuania, on Wednesday night, addressing a crowd that was waving American, Lithuanian and Ukrainian flags, he repeatedly invoked the struggle of the Baltic nations to free themselves from a collapsing Soviet Union, and told Vladimir V. Putin that the United States and its allies would defend Ukraine, and with it other vulnerable parts of Europe, “as long as it takes.”
Malaysia newest market for Antler in partnership with Khazanah
Nikkei Asia
23-07-14 05:41
Venture capital firm Antler has partnered with Malaysia's sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional Berhad to support the country's start-up ecosystem. The partnership is part of Khazanah's Future Malaysia Programme, which aims to invest MYR6bn ($1.3bn) in the local start-up ecosystem over five years. Antler, which has a presence in Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam, will begin its inaugural Venture Generation Programme in Kuala Lumpur in October. The initiative will offer start-ups support and access to Antler's network and global platform.
What the GOP’s sizable defections on Ukraine portend
Washington Post
23-07-14 13:50
Votes in the House of Representatives have suggested that a growing number of the GOP are skeptical of funding for Ukraine. Although five separate proposals were rejected, the support received suggests that a majority vote of the GOP in favour of such packages may be difficult to achieve in the future. The nay votes create uncertainty on the future of Ukraine’s aid packages, particularly if House Speaker Kevin McCarthy adheres to the “Hastert rule” and does not vote on issues unless they have majority support within the majority party.
Inside Hollywood’s big deepfake scandal – and why actors are striking over it
Telegraph
23-07-14 17:54
A strike by the American actors' union Sag-Aftra could bring the film and TV industry to a halt. The strike is in response to concerns that artificial intelligence (AI) technology, specifically deepfake technology, poses a threat to human actors. Deepfake technology involves digitally altering a person's appearance using AI, without the need for the actor's involvement. The actors' union is concerned that actors will be cloned and their likenesses exploited without their permission or payment. The strike could lead to the cancellation of movie premieres, press junkets, and even the postponement of the Emmy awards in September.
