Russia - Russia’s economy predicted to grow as rising oil prices trump sanctions



Russia, officially known as the Russian Federation, is a transcontinental country located in northern Eurasia. It is the largest country in the world, covering more than one-eighth of the Earth’s inhabited land area. The country is characterized by its diverse landscape, including forests, mountains, and rivers. The population of Russia is approximately 146 million people, making it the ninth most populous country in the world.

The history of Russia dates back to the 9th century, when the East Slavs established the Kievan Rus’. This early state evolved into the Grand Duchy of Moscow, which became the Tsardom of Russia in the 16th century. In the 18th century, Russia became an empire under the rule of Peter the Great. The country played a major role in defeating Napoleon in the 19th century and emerged as a superpower following World War II. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to the formation of the Russian Federation.

Russia is a federal semi-presidential republic. The President is the head of state and the Prime Minister is the head of government. The parliament consists of the State Duma (lower house) and the Federation Council (upper house). The country is divided into 85 federal subjects, with Moscow as its capital and largest city.

The Russian economy is characterized by its abundant natural resources, including oil, natural gas, coal, and timber. However, the country has faced economic challenges due to its overreliance on these resources and its declining population. The government has implemented various reforms to diversify the economy and promote foreign investment.

Russia is known for its rich cultural heritage, including literature, music, art, and architecture. Famous authors such as Leo Tolstoy and Fyodor Dostoevsky are widely read throughout the world. The country is also home to renowned classical composers, including Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky and Sergei Rachmaninoff. Russian architecture ranges from traditional wooden structures to ornate Orthodox churches. The country has also made significant contributions to the fields of science and technology.

The Russian Orthodox Church is the predominant religion in the country, with Islam and Buddhism also being significant. Religious tolerance is enshrined in the constitution, and the state has no official religion. Despite this, tensions between religious groups have occasionally led to conflict.

Russia is also known for its rich sports culture. The country has hosted numerous international events, including the 2018 FIFA World Cup and the upcoming 2022 Winter Olympics. Russian athletes have excelled in sports such as ice hockey, figure skating, and gymnastics.

Russia’s relationship with the rest of the world has been complex. The country has been involved in various military conflicts throughout history, including World War I and World War II. In recent years, Russia has faced criticism for its involvement in the Syrian Civil War and its annexation of Crimea in 2014. The country has also been accused of interfering in the 2016 United States presidential election.

In conclusion, Russia is a large, diverse country with a rich history and culture. While it has faced challenges in its economy and relationships with other countries, it remains an important player on the global stage.


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Rare good news from Credit Suisse with debt-for-nature swap deal

Financial Times

23-05-15 11:19


Credit Suisse has been making a name for itself as an unlikely champion of green innovation, thanks to innovative deals that repackage emerging market debt in exchange for promises to protect biodiversity. The bank bought $1.6bn of Ecuadorean government debt and then, with insurance and guarantees from the Inter-American Development Bank and the US International Development Finance Corporation, used a special purpose vehicle to swap the bonds for a smaller loan with Ecuador at lower cost with part of the funds set aside for marine conservation in the Galápagos. The deal is the biggest ever debt-for-nature swap. Calpers, the US's biggest pension plan, is also focusing on tackling greenwashing and increasing transparency on climate risks through better data collecting, as part of its drive to fulfill its obligation to make sure the markets price climate risks appropriately. CEO Marcie Frost expressed caution over divestment from oil businesses arguing that the most effective approach for Calpers was "to be in with the companies".

https://www.ft.com/content/66f038ce-292d-4425-af2d-5b6a1592f415
Europe’s economic outlook brightens a little after avoiding recession. But inflation still squeezes

The Globe and Mail

23-05-15 10:57


The European Commission has said that Europe dodged a winter recession amid an energy crisis but warned that stubborn inflation may be hurting the economy. The forecast for growth for the 20 countries using the euro currency improved from 0.9% to 1.1% this year, according to the European Commission during its spring forecast. Europe had been expected to be hit by a winter energy catastrophe after Russia cut off most of its supply of natural gas to the continent at the height of the Ukraine conflict. However, the EU scrambled to line up new sources of energy, helped by mild weather and a reduction in consumption.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/article-europes-economic-outlook-brightens-a-little-after-avoiding-recession/
Oil steady as tight supplies compete with economic concerns

The Globe and Mail

23-05-15 10:39


Oil prices were relatively stable on Monday due to mixed sentiment regarding supply and demand. The OPEC+ cuts have helped balance the market, but there are still concerns about fuel demand in the US and China. Brent crude remained at $73.91 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude saw a minor increase to $69.34 a barrel. The oil market has seen four consecutive weekly declines since September 2022 due to fears of a recession in the US and possible default. However, the second half of the year could see global crude supplies tightening due to OPEC+ cuts.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/article-oil-steady-as-tight-supplies-compete-with-economic-concerns/
EU lawmakers consider profit cap in case energy prices resurge

Reuters

23-05-15 10:36


Lawmakers in the European Parliament are considering a proposal to cap windfall revenues that result if Europe falls into another energy price crisis, and use the cash to cushion citizens from rocketing bills. They want to finalise a reform of the electricity market in 2016 to make the system more resilient in the face of price spikes such as those experienced following the crisis in the Ukraine last year, which exacerbated inequalities in Europe between wealthy and poorer nations.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-lawmakers-consider-profit-cap-case-energy-prices-resurge-2023-05-15/
Slovakia gets technocratic caretaker government until September’s early election

The Toronto Star

23-05-15 10:30


The President of Slovakia, Zuzana Caputova, has formed a government of technocrats to deal with the country’s political crisis after the previous coalition government lost a vote of no confidence in parliament. Heading the 15-member cabinet will be former central bank Deputy Governor Ludovit Odor, who will be joined by non-political, respected economist Martin Sklenar and former diplomat Miroslav Wlachovsky. No members of the current government will run in the ensuing election in September, with the team's focus being to stabilise Slovakia's position before the election and prepare next year's budget. Ukraine has been a contentious topic in Slovakian politics since the previous Heger government supported Ukraine's fight against Russian military aggression with arms including 13 MiG-29 fighter jets and the S-300 air defence system. Current opposition leaders, like Robert Fico, are against military support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Fico and his party, Smer-Social Democracy, are favourites to win the upcoming election.

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/europe/2023/05/15/slovakia-gets-technocratic-caretaker-government-until-septembers-early-election.html
Chinese Assessments of Countersanctions Strategies

CSIS

23-05-16 14:00


The CSIS Economics Program and Interpret: China project recently held a panel discussion on Chinese views of the effectiveness of economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and its allies in response to the Ukraine crisis. The panel discussed what strategies and approaches Beijing might develop to counter or circumvent similar US-led action in the future. The discussion was based on recently translated primary source documents and included experts from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California San Diego, and the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

https://www.csis.org/events/chinese-assessments-countersanctions-strategies
Strategic Trends 2023: Key Developments in Global Affairs

CSIS

23-05-16 13:00


The Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich has released a new report titled "Strategic Trends 2023: Key Developments in Global Affairs", which covers Russia-China relations, US tech alliances, extended nuclear deterrence, and India's foreign policy. On May 16th, CSIS will hold a virtual discussion about the report, featuring speakers Brian Carlson, Nevine Schepers, and Boas Lieberherr from the Global Security Team at ETH Zurich, as well as Emily Harding, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the International Security Program at CSIS.

https://www.csis.org/events/strategic-trends-2023-key-developments-global-affairs
Oil prices extend gains on US plans to refill reserve, Canada's wildfires

Reuters

23-05-16 01:33


Oil prices have risen for the second day as the US' Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) buys 3 million barrels of crude oil and concerns over Canadian wildfires fuelled supply worries. The US Department of Energy said on Monday it would buy oil for the SPR asking offers be submitted by 31 May. Oil supply concerns were also raised as forest fires in Canada closed down at least 319,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, or 3.7%, of national production. On the other hand, US oil output from the seven biggest shale basins is due to rise in June to a record high.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-extend-gains-us-plans-refill-reserve-canadas-wildfires-2023-05-16/
G7 host Japan seeks unity on threat from China

Financial Times

23-05-16 01:23


Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s key aim during the annual G7 summit this weekend is to establish a united G7 response to China's military ambitions and "economic coercion," as the country continues to seek closer ties with NATO and imposes sanctions against Moscow as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine. China’s interventionism has driven Japan to adopt a very cautious approach, revamping its military organisation and increasing security cooperation with nations in Southeast Asia and Europe. However, it is anticipated that the G7 will not agree on any specific new economic tools of security, and crucially, China will not be named in the statement. This widespread caucus approach aims to support countries being bullied by China rather than being completely focused on an offensive strategy. The EU, as well as other G7 members, remain very reluctant to adopt a more antagonistic stance, preferring to improve relations with emerging economies, particularly from Asia, Africa and South America.

https://www.ft.com/content/0998ac9a-58eb-44e2-b362-42cf5a0d468b
Meet Patron, the dog on a mission to help demine Ukraine

The Globe and Mail

23-05-16 00:09


A Jack Russell terrier called Patron is now a service dog working with the State Emergency Service (SES) of Ukraine for demining the country. In 2022, Japan provided USD 10mn to Ukraine in support of a mission to demine the country, and Patron has helped fulfill the mission by finding over 200 explosive devices. Ukraine remains the most mined country in the world, and almost 30% of the land is mined, equivalent to about 250,000 square kilometres. Patron is also teaching children how to be careful and follow safety rules, and regularly visits schools in Ukraine.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-patron-bomb-sniffing-dog-ukraine/
Chinese Assessments of Countersanctions Strategies

CSIS

23-05-16 14:00


The CSIS Economics Program and Interpret: China project recently held a panel discussion on Chinese views of the effectiveness of economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and its allies in response to the Ukraine crisis. The panel discussed what strategies and approaches Beijing might develop to counter or circumvent similar US-led action in the future. The discussion was based on recently translated primary source documents and included experts from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California San Diego, and the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

https://www.csis.org/events/chinese-assessments-countersanctions-strategies
Strategic Trends 2023: Key Developments in Global Affairs

CSIS

23-05-16 13:00


The Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich has released a new report titled "Strategic Trends 2023: Key Developments in Global Affairs", which covers Russia-China relations, US tech alliances, extended nuclear deterrence, and India's foreign policy. On May 16th, CSIS will hold a virtual discussion about the report, featuring speakers Brian Carlson, Nevine Schepers, and Boas Lieberherr from the Global Security Team at ETH Zurich, as well as Emily Harding, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the International Security Program at CSIS.

https://www.csis.org/events/strategic-trends-2023-key-developments-global-affairs
Too much demand, not enough supply. Global airfares set to stay sky high into 2024

South China Morning Post

23-05-16 06:00


Air travel is becoming more expensive post-pandemic, with most regions affected. The Asia-Pacific area has seen the highest prices increases - up to 33% more than in 2019. Europe has seen a 12% increase, while North America is at 17%. The closure of airspaces, labor shortages, and rising fuel costs are all affecting the supply of seats and contributing to the price increases.

However, the demand for international travel is strong, so travelers on the higher end of the income spectrum are paying for the higher prices. Domestic tourism revenues have also jumped in China, surpassing pre-pandemic levels to 101% during a recent holiday period. China’s theme parks are also said to be bouncing back to pre-pandemic levels as pent-up travel demand sparks a tourism boom.

International airlines saw a plunge of just 12.4% in passenger numbers in Q1 of 2023 compared to Q1 of 2019, due to lingering concerns over Covid-19 and tensions with the US and Europe. Chinese island Hainan saw a return of interest in its high-end consumption market, with foreign brands flocking to catch the post-Covid economic recovery.


https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3220685/global-impact-demand-outstripping-supply-eager-travellers-have-their-wings-clipped-amid-post-covid

Salman Rushdie attacks ‘comical’ efforts to make James Bond politically correct

Telegraph

23-05-16 06:00


Salman Rushdie has criticised attempts by publishers to make books politically correct, as he received the Freedom to Publish award at the British Book Awards and warned of increased threats to freedom of expression and speech. Rushdie also criticised publishers who sought to edit the works of Roald Dahl and Ian Fleming, with his publisher commissioning sensitivity readers to review novels that depicted black characters in potentially offensive ways. Davina McCall's guide to the menopause won the Book of the Year prize, while Bonnie Garmus was named Author of the Year for Lessons in Chemistry.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/16/salman-rushdie-james-bond-politically-correct-roald-dahl/
Sweden’s move to block foreign investments worries businesses

South China Morning Post

23-05-16 05:51


The Swedish government is set to announce a proposal on parliamentary veto power over foreign investment, as part of a suite of moves that may face opposition from the local business lobby. SVT's report of Sweden having 1,500 Chinese-owned firms, including Volvo, has been highlighted in discussions on the upcoming legislation. The new measures will put Sweden closer in line to other European nations that already employ similar security provisions. However, critics predict that the new laws could create a negative impact on global trade and that too much bureaucratic red tape and investment hurdles may scare companies and investors away.

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3220702/swedens-move-block-foreign-investments-worries-businesses
Chinese Assessments of Countersanctions Strategies

CSIS

23-05-16 14:00


The CSIS Economics Program and Interpret: China project recently held a panel discussion on Chinese views of the effectiveness of economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and its allies in response to the Ukraine crisis. The panel discussed what strategies and approaches Beijing might develop to counter or circumvent similar US-led action in the future. The discussion was based on recently translated primary source documents and included experts from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California San Diego, and the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

https://www.csis.org/events/chinese-assessments-countersanctions-strategies
Strategic Trends 2023: Key Developments in Global Affairs

CSIS

23-05-16 13:00


The Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich has released a new report titled "Strategic Trends 2023: Key Developments in Global Affairs", which covers Russia-China relations, US tech alliances, extended nuclear deterrence, and India's foreign policy. On May 16th, CSIS will hold a virtual discussion about the report, featuring speakers Brian Carlson, Nevine Schepers, and Boas Lieberherr from the Global Security Team at ETH Zurich, as well as Emily Harding, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the International Security Program at CSIS.

https://www.csis.org/events/strategic-trends-2023-key-developments-global-affairs
EU to curb In­di­an fuel im­ports made with Russ­ian oil: Re­port

Al Jazeera

23-05-16 09:50


The EU has publicly criticised India's role in the evasion of Western sanctions on Russia by reselling Russian crude oil to Europe as refined fuel, including diesel. Such curbs could affect India's economy substantially as refined petroleum is its top export. India emerged as a top buyer of Russian oil following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, importing more than a fifth of the country's overall fuel imports in fiscal 2022/23. Reports have cited mounting evidence of Indian firms buying and refining Russian oil to sell on to Europe. Access to such crude oil has boosted Indian refineries' output and profits.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/16/eu-to-curb-indian-fuel-imports-made-with-russian-oil-report
EU urged to crack down on sanctions-dodging India reselling Russian oil

South China Morning Post

23-05-16 09:43


The EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, has called for the EU to clamp down on the import of Russian oil resold by India as refined fuel; the diesel and petrol could be considered a circumvention of sanctions. The EU has already banned Russian oil orders, so access to cheap Russian crude has allowed Indian refineries to export refined products competitively to Europe and take a greater market share. According to ship-tracking data from Kpler, Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy were the key exporters of refined fuels and buyers of Russian oil.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3220745/eus-borrell-urges-bloc-crack-down-imports-indian-fuels-made-russian-oil