李强急于重启中国经济,分析日本外相林芳正访华受到热情接待|日经亚洲

  • 日本外相林芳正最近的中国之行是三年来的第一次,虽然没有产生许多快乐的照片,但北京给予他相对热烈的欢迎。他会见了中国第二号领导人李强总理,并与中国最高外交官、中共强大的政治局委员王毅和外交部长秦刚分别举行了会谈。

  • 李强的任务是启动经济,他被视为习近平主席最亲密的助手之一。中国已经设定了 "5%左右 "的增长目标,但由于贸易的不景气,主要是与美国的贸易,以及获得高性能半导体的困难,这个目标可能难以实现。李强强调了私营公司在重振经济方面的重要性。

  • 李强的成功对他本人和习近平主席都很重要,因为他在上任前没有在中央政府任职的经验,而不成功的一年可能会让人怀疑习近平的非正统权力之路。中国在台湾和经济问题上对林芳正提出警告,但在当时的情况下,对他的访问给予了一定程度的尊重和包容。

  • 这篇文章重点讨论了安斯泰来制药公司的一名日本雇员因涉嫌从事间谍活动而在中国被拘留的案件。目前还不清楚李强总理是否有权力和权限来解决这个问题,因为权力已经从国务院转移到共产党领导层了。李强需要将这一问题提交给政治局常委会,并获得习近平本人的批准。

  • 中国的国家安全机构在追捕间谍时不太重视外交后果,因此在习近平的眼皮底下,李强和蔡英文的关系将成为决定性因素。这可能会对日本公司产生深远的影响,因为许多商人会对以中国专家身份建立自己的事业三思而行。还有新一代的日本人对中国几乎没有兴趣,这一事件可能会进一步助长这种情况。

  • 李强有领导江苏和上海的经验,这两个地区是许多日本公司的所在地,最近他在东京赞助了一个活动,以促进对中国的投资。与此同时,中国私营经济的著名象征马云再次出现在杭州,日本前首相福田康夫在中国与王毅会面。目前还不清楚中国是继续冒着进一步破坏经济关系的风险扣留公民,还是按照李强的计划解决这个问题。

  • Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi’s recent trip to China was the first in three years, and while it did not produce many happy photos, Beijing gave him a relatively warm welcome. He met with China’s No. 2 leader Premier Li Qiang and held separate talks with Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat and member of the Communist Party’s powerful Politburo, and Foreign Minister Qin Gang.

  • Li Qiang has been tasked with jump-starting the economy, and is seen as one of President Xi Jinping’s closest aides. China has set a growth target of “around 5%,” but this could be difficult to achieve due to the slump in trade, primarily with the U.S., and difficulties in acquiring high-performance semiconductors. Li Qiang has stressed the importance of private companies in reigniting the economy.

  • Li Qiang’s success is important for both himself and President Xi Jinping, as he had no experience in the central government before assuming his post and an unsuccessful year could call into doubt Xi’s unorthodox path to power. China warned Hayashi over Taiwan and economic issues, but honored and accommodated his visit to the extent given the circumstances.

  • The article focuses on the case of a Japanese employee of Astellas Pharma detained in China on suspicion of spying. It is unclear whether Premier Li Qiang has the power and authority to resolve the issue as power has been shifting away from the State Council to the Communist Party leadership. Li Qiang would need to bring the issue before the Politburo Standing Committee and obtain approval from Xi himself.

  • China’s national security apparatus does not pay much attention to diplomatic consequences when going after spies, so the relationship between Li and Cai, under the eye of Xi, will be the deciding factor. This could have a far-reaching impact on Japan Inc. as many businesspeople will think twice about building their careers as China experts. There is also a new generation of Japanese people who have little or no interest in China, which could be further fuelled by this incident.

  • Li Qiang has experience leading Jiangsu and Shanghai, two areas that are home to many Japanese companies, and recently sponsored an event in Tokyo to promote investment in China. Meanwhile, Jack Ma, a well-known symbol of China’s private sector economy, resurfaced in Hangzhou and former Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda met with Wang Yi in China. It is unclear whether China will continue to hold the citizen at the risk of further disrupting economic relations, or solve the problem in accordance with Li Qiang’s plans.