Russian soldiers fighting on the front line in Ukraine are suffering, and with rising casualty rates, Putin is paying a high price for his decision to invade. The Russian Army moved into the Crimea in February 2014, and fighting began with Ukrainian forces in the Donbas that April. The casual factors that Putin has been successful in hiding until now are becoming readily apparent, and a peace recessions looks like it would probably result in Putin's forced military collapse. It is thought that the reasons Putin would not want a ceasefire are that it would confirm the values of the international order, which he loathes, and second, would make it difficult for him to expand his military objectives in fighting in Syria, where he supports President Assad.
The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has ordered that the country's most treasured orthodox icon be moved from a museum to a church. Despite concerns over potential damage to the artwork, Moscow's Tretyakov Gallery has been instructed to give Holy Trinity, a 15th century icon by Andrei Rublev, to the Russian Orthodox Church. The move has been interpreted as a bid to reverse Russia's battlefield losses in Ukraine, with the deeply pro-Putin church having enthusiastically supported the invasion of its neighbour. The move has garnered harsh criticism from figures including Mikhail Shvydkoi, the president's plenipotentiary envoy for cultural co-operation.
Overnight missile strikes against Ukraine by Russia failed, with the Ukrainian military stating it had shot down 29 Russian cruise missiles out of 30. The strikes targeted areas including Kyiv and the southern city of Odessa. The National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine has described Kyiv as "Putin's relentless and unachievable target". The council also claimed that the fact the hypersonic missiles have been neutralised so easily served "to burst the nuclear bubble."
UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles have been used against Russian targets by the Ukrainian forces, according to statements by Ben Wallace, the UK's defence secretary. While Wallace refused to reveal exact details about the long-range cruise missile directly fired at Russian targets by Ukraine, he confirmed that the use is meant to counterbalance Russia's approach to conflict in Ukraine. This is after Ukraine's leader Volodymyr Zelensky had requested western leaders to provide Ukraine with NATO fighter jets particularly F-16s which the UK does not possess.
Leaders of the G7 gathered in Hiroshima, Japan this week to discuss several issues including the economic and security tensions with China and how the most advanced economies in the world can de-risk strategic industries and diversify global supply chains. A key issue at the summit was the need for leaders to reaffirm their pledge of support for Ukraine, and commitment to impose costs and pressure on Russia and any other nations that assist it. Leaders will focus on calling out China’s actions such as economic retaliation against nations over policy disputes and other agreements, and pledging that their nation's industries will resist such coercion and take concrete steps to start building resiliency. To make the world’s largest economies more resilient in strategic minerals and rare earths, the G7 summit should agree on a plan to collectively become more resilient. This week’s summit should also address how the G7 forum can continue to bolster the rules-based international order, its democratic values and norms, and how to drive technical standard-setting for emerging technologies.
The G7 is significant as it reflects an effort to bring in key countries in the Global South to balance against China’s growing diplomatic and economic influence in that sphere. This year’s summit coincides with a Quad Leaders’ meeting that will take place in Japan on the sidelines of the G7 following President Biden’s decision to shorten his Asia trip. The leaders of Australia, Japan, and India will come together to discuss the changing geopolitical scenario in the Indo-Pacific and will present China with a united and coherent strategy to tackle issues that put current international norms at risk. Given the strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific, there is a growing need for stakeholders to consolidate the rules-based order. It is without doubt that the Quad and G7 grouping need to find a sustainable consensus that would provide space for regional peace and stability in an increasingly competitive and contested world order. These forums should work together to fight back and preserve a space of international affairs which could, directly or indirectly, hurt China’s interests. Any concrete effort to this end will require a competitive collective approach and a shared vision for addressing complex challenges.
An underground bunker has been constructed beneath Russian President Vladimir Putin's Black Sea palace, according to images posted online by the now-defunct construction firm that built it, Metro Style. The complex, which was built in the early 2010s, when Putin was cultivating warm relations with European powers, spans roughly 6,500 sq ft and features concrete bunkers with their own sewage and fresh water supply, alongside an elevator shaft and two tunnels which have exits visible on the cliff face rising up from the sea to the palace. The purpose of the underground complex is unclear, but speculation suggests it has been developed as a form of protection for Putin in the event of a revolution or war.
US President Joe Biden plans to unveil “substantial” new sanctions targeting hundreds of entities across Asia, Europe and the Middle East as part of a renewed push to end Moscow's war on Ukraine. Among the $300 sanctions will be individuals, entities, vessels and aircraft that help Russia skirt measures such as the blocking of Russian banks from the Swift financial messaging system, as well as future energy and extractive technical capabilities. While the senior White House official declined to specify the entities targeted in the upcoming sanctions, he did say "all G7 members are preparing to implement new sanctions and export controls".
A newly published report on the FBI’s investigations into the 2016 presidential election suggests a politically motivated bias, with the agency having treated the election candidates, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, quite differently. The report, by US Department of Justice Special Counsel John H. Durham, says that the FBI was too quick to launch its Crossfire Hurricane investigation into allegations that Trump’s campaign team colluded with Russia, although it also found that there had been no proven collusion between the parties. Durham also concluded that the FBI had “never opened any type of inquiry” into the allegation that Clinton’s campaign sought to deflect controversy over her use of emails by linking Trump with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The FBI “never launched an investigation into rumours that foreign agents wished to target Team Clinton but, instead, provided Hillary's people with a defence briefing,” says journalist Matthew Sweet. The investigations and accusations about collusion had repercussions that undermined both candidates' electoral prospects and contributed to a widespread perception that it shaped US foreign policy.
Ukraine has made small territorial gains in Bakhmut, after fiercely repelling an attack by Russia on Thursday. Russian forces launched a number missile strikes across the country overnight, with Ukraine claiming to successfully shoot down 29 of 30 missiles. Meanwhile, Ukraine urged citizens to evacuate the industrial zone in Kyiv after ammunition storage depots there caught fire following a missile hit, and there were reports of huge explosions. The developments illustrate the fragility of the truce agreed this year, with US officials now speaking of the imminence of a Russian invasion.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who was previously the Foreign Minister, spoke about his vision of a world without nuclear weapons seven years ago in Hiroshima and called this his dream. But as he returns to the city to chair the G7 summit, he admits it is a far-off prospect and disarmament remains central to his political career. As well as the threat of nuclear proliferation, Japan could be dragged into approaches to Taiwan if a conflict is sparked between Beijing and Washington, a concern experts say will be a key focus of the summit.
The alleged price-capping mechanism introduced by the Group of Seven against Russia last year has failed to limit the Kremlin's crude oil revenues since it continues to flow while revenues remain almost unchanged. Initiated by the US government, the mechanism focused on cutting the Russian government's revenue while enabling global exports to continue. The plan hoped to reduce oil prices by limiting the buyers' payment structure for Russian crude and diesel to $60 and $100 a barrel. However, troubling statements have emerged, which indicated that the sanctions in this regard pushed Russian oil trading away from reliable, well-known shipping companies and related trades to new, little informed ones.
The UK is to ban Russian diamond imports as part of its latest sanctions targeting Russia in response to their invasion of Ukraine. The new legislation will also block imports of Russian-origin nickel, copper, and aluminium. President Putin and 86 more people and companies connected to him are also set to be targeted by the sanctions, including those who are "actively undermining the impact of existing sanctions". The Russian diamond industry is worth $4bn in UK exports and the sanctions follow similar moves by the US and EU. The UK has targeted over 1,500 entities and individuals and frozen more than £18bn of assets since Russia's attack on Ukraine.
Britain will announce a ban on Russian diamond sales and block import of “industrially significant metals” later today, alongside specific sanctions on another 86 senior figures and companies in Vladimir Putin's military industrial complex. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began last year, countries such as Belgium have opposed plans to ban the country’s diamonds. The UK has previously taken the lead on action against Russian diamonds, sanctioning Alrosa, the state-owned company, and increasing tariffs by an additional 35%. The ban will disrupt an industry worth $4bn in exports in 2021.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will participate in the G7 summit in person, with new sanctions against Russia expected to be announced at the event. The UK plans to ban Russian diamonds and many imported metals, while the US is expected to add 70 new entities to its export blacklist. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces claim to have repelled day-long attacks by Russia in the city of Bakhmut. Russia reportedly increased its forces in the area, while Ukraine claims its forces advanced by up to 1km. Explosions in Ukrainian cities were reported last night as millions of people were warned of an anticipated counteroffensive.
Victoria Coates, senior advisor to the US Secretary of Energy under President Trump, is interviewed on The Kevin Roberts Show about effective national security policies. Coates suggests that the US has been the greatest force for good in human history and discusses that the country doesn't need to overthrow dictatorial regimes and impose democracy rather encourage, instruct, and be a good example. Coates also discusses the importance of seizing opportunities, flexibility, and not being wedded to rigid ideologies that cut you off from unorthodox solutions. She also notes the importance of historical perspective when dealing with human beings and the hallmark of being resilient.
Coates mentions the difficulty of figuring out the triangle of policy, communications, and politics and navigating it in a world where communications and information is flowing at such a rapid rate. She mentions that moral clarity, the clarity of vision, and purpose are also infectious, not just for the men and women who have the privilege of working for people like that, but also for the country and a group of free people around the planet who are going to respond to any American president who’s bold and has a clear vision and also has the ability to speak.
The United States must manage its efforts to balance assistance to Ukraine and deterrence against China to ensure both priorities are met, according to a report by The Heritage Foundation. Supporting the self-defense of Ukraine and the defense of Taiwan are both in the interest of the United States. Any form of forced unification of Taiwan by China would entail direct harm to US economic and national security interests, with global consequences. A Russia that emerges from the Ukraine war capable of further territorial aggression could also threaten NATO, non-NATO countries, and international trade routes.
To date, not enough has been done to ensure support for Ukraine does not detract from building a strong deterrence posture against China. The administration and Congress must first acknowledge this and then actively manage US efforts to accomplish both. Effective support for Ukraine will not only weaken the Kremlin’s foreign policy, generally, it will also constrain the resources Moscow has to cement its relationship with China, according to the report. The US should protect its interests in both theaters.
The US government provides defense articles, training, and services to eligible foreign governments through security assistance programs. Since February 24, 2022, the US has provided $36.9bn in security assistance to Ukraine, the report showed. However, policymakers should also understand the tension between the two countries’ foreign military sales (FMS) purchases while working to fix the administrative and capacity problems causing a backlog in FMS deliveries.
The term “Christian nationalism” is now being used by many to smear conservative Christians who defend the role of religion in American public life, even though the term can have many meanings depending on who is doing the defining. Sociologists Andrew Whitehead and Samuel Perry have recently published, Taking America Back for God, in which they define Christian nationalism as “an ideology that idealizes and advocates a fusion of American civic life with a particular type of Christian identity and culture,” but they include assumptions of “nativism, white supremacy, patriarchy and heteronormativity, along with divine sanction for authoritarian control and militarism,” which many do not believe is what the term describes. A Brookings Institute and the Public Religion Research Institute survey found 29% of the American population fell somewhere on the “Christian nationalist” spectrum. To smear conservative Christians who defend the role of religion in American public life, the definition has been stretched to include standard conservative views on marriage, family, and politics, as well as anyone who opposes policies an accuser doesn’t like. The term, as used in the media, is mostly a rhetorical tool to smear and silence conservatives.
President Biden's mixed stance on energy with the approval of oil exploration in Alaska yet pushing to eliminate fossil fuels is a losing strategy, according to the author of this op-ed. The mixed signals are alienating both sides of the political spectrum, and Biden's agenda will lead to higher energy prices and restrict development in Arctic reserves. The push of fossil fuel elimination is also damaging, unnecessary and could make it difficult to keep the lights on. Pennsylvania, with its energy reserves, is a crucial player in energy policy and a must-win electoral battleground.
The president of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum, has warned of the presence of Russia's Wagner mercenaries in neighbouring countries Mali and Burkina Faso and urged Western investment in his country. Niger, which is rich in natural resources and minerals, produces seven percent of the world's uranium supply and is becoming a focus of Western interest as an African security and economic partner. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Niger in April and the country's president met with Emmanuel Macron in Paris and attended King Charles’ coronation in London. Bazoum stated that despite their presence in the region, he would "certainly not invite" Wagner to Niger. The Libyan-owned Wagner Group engages in lucrative commercial ventures in Africa and has a widespread military presence in the region. Some proceeds go to funding its operations in Ukraine, estimated to cost $100m per month. Climate change has also had a severe impact on the region, making it vulnerable to Islamist extremist recruitment. Bazoum has urged Western companies to invest in Niger, stating there is little incoming investment from countries such as France and the UK.
The battle of Bakhmut has been one of the bloodiest episodes of the war between Ukraine and Russian forces spearheaded by Wagner mercenaries in the country. It is in Bakhmut that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed forces planned to outdo the regular Russian armed forces and disgrace the Kremlin's defence minister, Sergei Shoigu. However, Shoigu may have spotted an opportunity in Bakhmut to cripple Prigozhin’s influence, for example by cutting off the Wagner group from munitions and leaving their flanks supported by only poorly trained units with low morale. Ukrainian forces have pushed back units north and south of the town, leaving Wagner dangerously exposed in the centre.
