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中国立法机构和政治咨询机构的 "两会 "年度会议将于周六开始,完成领导层交接并调整政府高层职位。
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中国将在会议上宣布其GDP增长目标,推出主要经济政策,并解决主要关切。
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人们普遍预计,最高领导团队将把今年的增长目标定在5%以上,并采取支持性的宏观政策,包括略高的总体财政赤字和更多的房地产政策宽松。
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专家表示,目前还不清楚中国的复苏会有多稳定和可持续,面临着海外出口需求放缓、地缘政治风险上升以及房地产行业的麻烦等不利因素。
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全球金融机构预计中国经济在2023年将增长5.5%以上。
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恢复中国的商业信心,特别是对跨国公司而言,是当局正在进行的一项工作。
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中小型出口商正面临着困难,但政府正以更有针对性的政策来应对,包括对出口信用保险的补贴和增加信贷额度。
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被停止的基础设施项目的建设已经重新开始,政府将借更多的钱来推动复苏。
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然而,较弱的出口可能会抵消这些努力,而且由于外部环境的不确定性和地缘政治风险,预计不会出现2021年那样强劲的反弹。
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The “two sessions” annual meetings of China’s legislature and political advisory body are starting on Saturday, completing a leadership transition and reshuffling top government jobs.
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China will announce its GDP growth target, roll out major economic policies, and address key concerns at the meetings.
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The top leadership team is widely expected to set the growth target at above 5% this year, with supportive macro policies, including a slightly higher headline fiscal deficit and more property policy easing.
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Experts said it’s unclear how steady and sustainable China’s recovery will be, facing headwinds such as slowing overseas demand for its exports, rising geopolitical risk, and trouble in the property sector.
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Global financial institutions expect the Chinese economy to grow by more than 5.5% in 2023.
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Restoring business confidence in China, especially for multinationals, is a work in progress for authorities.
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Small- and medium-sized exporters are facing difficulties, but the government is responding with better targeted policies, including subsidies for export credit insurance and increased credit lines.
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Construction of infrastructure projects that were halted has restarted, and the government is set to borrow more to drive recovery.
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However, weaker exports might offset these efforts, and a rebound as strong as in 2021 is not expected due to external environmental uncertainties and geopolitical risks.