-
中国去年的精炼铜净进口总量为364万吨，比2021年增加了近30万吨，是继2020年创纪录的一年之后的第二高的统计数字。
-
同时，矿精的进口量达到了2532万吨，创下了新的年度记录，而废铜的进口量是2018年以来的最高值。
-
鉴于私营企业迈科集团的财务问题，去年的进口力度更令人惊讶，该集团在2022年夏天突然停止了所有铜的采购，因为它没有现金支付给供应商。
-
这造成了供应短缺的连锁反应，并提高了上海地区和广东省用户的溢价，迈科在这些地区的地位尤为突出。
-
然而，这显然对进入中国的精炼铜的总体流量影响很小。
-
由于金属从西方市场转移，中国去年的原铝进口量猛增了59%。但2022年中国对俄罗斯铜的进口实际上下降了20%，至32.4万吨。
-
去年精炼金属的进口热潮反映在原材料市场上，铜精矿的流入量创下新高，可回收铜的进口量增加了5%。
-
2021年推出的更严格的纯度门槛，意味着去年177万吨的废钢进口中，铜的含量比历史上的标准要高很多。
-
随着更多的铜通过各种渠道流入中国，中国应该有大量的铜。
-
但事实似乎并非如此。
-
中国的可见铜库存目前正呈急剧上升的趋势，就像它们在农历新年假期期间所做的一样。
-
密切关注的中国现货进口欲望指标–洋山溢价已跌至九个月低点。
-
但今年的库存重建是在非常低的水平上进行的。
-
对于所有缺失的铜，一个可能的解释是，在滚动锁定的一年里，中国的需求比预期的要好得多。
-
此外，中国由政府主导的可再生能源基础设施建设，有可能以更多电线、太阳能电池板、风电场和电动汽车的形式产生了针对铜的刺激。
-
高盛预计，今年所谓的 "绿色需求 "将占到中国总需求增长的68%，抵消了房地产行业的持续疲软。
-
另一种可能性是，中国一直在向低价环境补货，利用2020年和2022年下半年的低铜价。
-
还有一种可能是，中国的国家库存管理者一直在补货。
-
最后，有可能是进口铜被用于战略储备，或被运往其他国家，如香港。
-
China’s net imports of refined copper totalled 3.64 million tonnes last year, an increase of almost 300,000 tonnes on 2021 and the second highest tally after the record-breaking year of 2020.
-
Imports of mined concentrates, meanwhile, notched up a new annual record of 25.32 million tonnes and those of copper scrap were the highest since 2018.
-
The strength of last year’s imports was even more surprising given the financial problems at privately-owned Maike Group, which abruptly halted all its copper purchases in the summer of 2022 after it ran out of cash to pay suppliers.
-
This has created a ripple effect of supply shortages and higher premiums for users in the Shanghai area and Guangdong province, where Maike was a particularly powerful player.
-
However, it has clearly had minimal impact on the overall flow of refined copper into China.
-
China’s imports of primary aluminium leapt by 59% last year as metal was redirected from Western markets. But China’s imports of Russian copper actually fell by 20% to 324,000 tonnes in 2022.
-
Last year’s refined metal import boom was mirrored in the raw materials markets, with record inflows of copper concentrate and a 5% increase in imports of recyclable copper.
-
Tighter purity thresholds introduced in 2021 mean that last year’s 1.77 million tonnes of scrap imports contained a lot more copper than the historical norm.
-
With more copper flowing across all channels into China, the country should be awash with the stuff.
-
Yet it doesn’t seem to be.
-
China’s visible copper inventories are currently trending sharply higher as they always do over the Lunar New Year holiday season.
-
The Yangshan premium, a closely-watched indicator of China’s spot import appetite, has plunged to a nine-month low.
-
But this year’s stocks rebuild is taking place from very low levels.
-
One possible explanation for all the missing copper is that China’s demand held up much better than expected during a year of rolling lockdowns.
-
Additionally, it is possible that China’s government-led drive towards renewable power infrastructure is generating a copper-specific stimulus in the form of more power lines, solar panels, wind farms and electric vehicles.
-
Goldman Sachs expects so-called “green demand” to account for 68% of total demand growth in China this year, offsetting continued weakness in the property sector.
-
Another possibility is that China has been restocking into a low price environment, taking advantage of the low copper prices in 2020 and in the second half of 2022.
-
There is also the possibility that China’s national stockpile managers have been restocking.
-
Finally, it is possible that the copper imports are being used for strategic stockpiling, or being shipped to other countries, such as Hong Kong.
链接：Column: While Dr Copper waits for China, China buys more copper | Reuters