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中国正在成为发展中世界的资本和资本品的主要供应商。
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中国的低成本、丰富的产品种类、快速的实施能力和来自贸易顺差的剩余资本是推动这一变革的原因。
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降低的投资成本正在帮助发展中国家增长，并使它们更加对经济波动免疫。
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随着发展中国家的竞争力增强，发达国家面临生活水平不断下降的压力。
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去年，中国对印度的出口增长了21.7%，达到1185亿美元。
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印度与中国的贸易逆差超过了1000亿美元，形成了一种与中国不平衡的贸易关系。
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尽管存在边界冲突，印度仍然容忍甚至追求与中国的贸易关系。
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原因是中国的进口对印度的全球竞争力和发展目标至关重要。
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印度的人均国内生产总值略高于2000美元，因此很难从人均收入高出20到30倍的发达经济体购买资本品和工业中间产品。由于高价格，这将减缓印度的发展。
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由于从中国进口廉价的中间材料，印度的非专利药品行业具有全球竞争力。
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中国是零部件和中间材料的中心，使各国能够专注于自己的优势，并以低廉的价格从中国进口其余部分，在全球市场上竞争。
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从中国购买并不影响一个国家的竞争力，因为中国的人均收入约为12,000美元。
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二十年前，发展中国家的大城市基础设施薄弱。
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如今，新兴世界的许多大城市都有现代化的配套设施，如地铁和摩天大楼。
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新兴世界的大城市与发达国家之间的差异越来越不明显。
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这是由于中国设备、建筑材料和实施能力的影响。
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像泰国和印度尼西亚这样人均GDP分别超过7000美元和4000美元的国家，有能力使用中国的现代资产进行发展。
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以新兴市场的价格拥有现代资产的优势正在推动这一转变。
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与欧洲或北美相比，来自世界各地的人才可以在新兴经济体，如印度尼西亚或泰国生活，而不牺牲生活质量。
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由于生活成本降低，新兴经济体的生活质量正在提高。
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这种发展将吸引全球人才在新兴经济体生活，减少全球南方和全球北方之间的人力资源差距。
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全世界都在关注中国的 "一带一路 "倡议，这是一个由政府主导的资本出口计划。
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中国对新兴经济体出口的成功是由于其广泛而深入的工业产出和低价格。
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中国的低价格导致新兴世界的需求增加，形成良性循环，促进新兴世界的更高增长。
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与日本、韩国和台湾不同，中国的制造业比发达经济体更大，其成本也没有上升。
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老牌工业经济体必须面对生活水平的下降，因为他们的成本上升。
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发达经济体由于注重刺激消费而不是解决竞争力的挑战而面临经济困境。
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这导致了家庭和政府部门的债务堆积，导致了不可避免的债务危机。
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2023年的全球经济衰退风险是由于大流行期间的过度刺激所引起的通货膨胀的降落。
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发展中国家受益于与中国不断增长的贸易，在即将到来的全球经济衰退中会有更强的抵抗力。
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发达经济体由于试图通过刺激消费而不是解决竞争力的挑战来捍卫生活水平而面临经济困境。
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这导致家庭和政府部门的债务空前积聚，并且由于过度刺激引起的通货膨胀着陆，2023年有可能出现全球经济衰退。
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发展中国家受益于与中国不断增长的贸易，预计在未来的经济衰退中会有更大的弹性。
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美元的主导地位意味着，随着美联储收紧其货币政策，导致资本市场的流动性收紧，全球可能发生重大金融危机。
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中国在新兴世界的成功支持了其和平崛起的可行性，并能在20年内将其推向高收入水平，通过低风险和低成本的途径成为世界上的主导经济体。
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然而，与西方的关系可能会变得更加对抗，诱使北京去争取军事上的胜利，以加强和扩大其经济成就。
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China is becoming the main supplier of capital and capital goods to the developing world.
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China’s lower costs, vast product offerings, fast implementation capability, and surplus capital from its trade surplus are driving this shift.
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The reduced investment cost is helping developing economies grow and become more resilient to economic volatility.
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The developed world is facing growing pressure on living standards as the developing world becomes more competitive.
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Last year, China’s exports to India rose by 21.7% to reach $118.5 billion.
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India’s trade deficit with China surpassed $100 billion, leading to a lopsided trade relationship with China.
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Despite the backdrop of border conflicts, India continues to tolerate and even pursue this trade relationship with China.
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The reason is that Chinese imports are crucial to India’s global competitiveness and development goals.
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India’s per capita GDP is slightly above $2,000, making it difficult to buy capital goods and industrial intermediates from developed economies with a much higher per capita income of 20 to 30 times greater. This would slow India’s development due to the high prices.
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India’s generic drug industry is globally competitive due to the import of cheap intermediate materials from China.
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China is a hub for components and intermediate materials, allowing countries to focus on their strengths and import the rest from China at low prices to compete in the global market.
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Buying from China does not affect a country’s competitiveness as China’s per capita income is around $12,000.
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Two decades ago, big cities in developing countries had poor infrastructure.
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Nowadays, many big cities in the emerging world have modern trappings such as subways and skyscrapers.
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The difference between big cities in the emerging world and developed countries is becoming less distinct.
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This is due to the influence of Chinese equipment, construction materials, and implementation capacity.
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Countries such as Thailand and Indonesia, with a per capita GDP of over $7,000 and $4,000 respectively, can afford to use China’s modern assets for development.
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The advantage of having modern assets at an emerging-market price is driving this transformation.
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Talent from around the world can live in emerging economies such as Indonesia or Thailand without sacrificing quality of life compared to Europe or North America.
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The quality of life in emerging economies is improving due to lower living costs.
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This development will attract global talent to live in emerging economies, reducing the gap in human resources between the Global South and Global North.
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The world is focusing on China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a government-led capital export program.
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The success of China’s exports to emerging economies is due to its wide and deep industrial output and low prices.
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China’s low prices lead to higher demand from the emerging world, creating a virtuous cycle and promoting higher growth in the emerging world.
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Unlike Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, China’s manufacturing sector is larger than that of developed economies and its costs are not rising.
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The established industrial economies must face a decrease in living standards as their costs rise.
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Developed economies have faced economic struggles due to a focus on stimulating consumption instead of addressing competitiveness challenges.
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This has resulted in a buildup of debt in household and government sectors, leading to an inevitable debt crisis.
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The global recession risk in 2023 is due to the inflation-induced landing from excessive stimulus during the pandemic.
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The developing world, benefiting from growing trade with China, will be more resilient during the coming global downturn.
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Developed economies have faced economic struggles due to their attempts to defend living standards by stimulating consumption rather than addressing competitiveness challenges.
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This has resulted in an unprecedented build-up of debt in the household and government sectors and a risk of a global recession in 2023 due to inflation-induced landing from excessive stimulus.
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The developing world, benefiting from growing trade with China, is expected to be more resilient during the coming downturn.
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The US dollar’s dominance means that a major financial crisis could occur globally as the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy, leading to liquidity tightening for capital markets.
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China’s success in the emerging world supports the viability of its peaceful rise and can propel it to high-income levels within two decades, through a low-risk and low-cost path to becoming the dominant economy in the world.
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However, the relationship with the West may become more confrontational, tempting Beijing to go for military victories to strengthen and extend its economic successes.
链接：How emerging economies can help China achieve its goal of peaceful rise | South China Morning Post