中国的监视气球不是一次意志的考验,冷战是以过度反应开场|外交政策

  • 上周六,一个中国气球在南卡罗来纳州海岸被击落,并被美国收回。

  • 中国声称该气球是一个偏离航线的气象装置。

  • 这个气球不太可能是一个故意的挑衅,因为这对中国没有任何好处。

  • 中国多年来一直在试验监视气球网络,包括入侵外国领空。

  • 8天来,地面上成千上万的人都能看到这个气球,这表明这是一个错误,而不是一个故意的行为。

  • 对气球飞行路线的可能解释包括寒冷的天气和缺乏来自北京的控制。

  • 美国学者提出了 "气球缺口 "的可能性,假设监视背后有狡猾的动机。

  • 中国军队特别不透明,使其错误不那么明显。

  • 气球可能是一个有用的工具,也可能是一个昂贵的博弈。

  • 华盛顿的学者和政客们倾向于将中国的行动视为对美国意志的考验,任何非极端的反应都被视为美国软弱的表现。

  • 美国军方采取了明智的做法,在击落气球前等待,但这被视为软弱的表现。

  • 美国政客把中国作为国内党派斗争的武器,对热气球进行夸大和不准确的宣称。

  • 参议员马尔科-鲁比奥指责拜登政府没有更早地击落气球,暗示任何不采取极端反应的做法都是软弱的表现。

  • 美国右翼猜测,气球里有 “生物武器”,拜登被中国 “妥协”,脱离了现实。

  • 一些共和党议员贴出带枪的图片,承诺要亲自击落气球。

  • 美国政客对中国行动的反应有可能将小的挑衅变成高风险的冲突。

  • 美国政客利用中国作为推进国内党派斗争的武器,对热气球进行夸大和不准确的宣称。

  • 美国军方采取了明智的做法,在击落热气球前等待,但这被视为软弱的表现。

  • 在整个冷战期间,偏执狂和缺乏透明度导致美国相信有一个想象中的 “导弹缺口”,并对美国的国内和国外政策造成损害。

  • 相互监视是一个现实,需要有分寸的反应,然而侵犯领空会导致危险的错误。

  • 中国政府经常在没有外国干涉的情况下怀疑外国干涉,这在最近的监视气球危机中得到了证明。

  • 在其他新闻中,中国已经训练松鼠嗅出毒品。 我们必须问自己:松鼠还能被训练做什么?

  • 拜登总统周二的国情咨文演说着重于外交政策,特别是美中之间的竞争。他强调,美国在寻求合作的同时,也认为与中国在经济和意识形态方面存在竞争。

  • 过去两年的叙述转变受到了中国摇摇欲坠的经济和失败的零关税政策的影响,以及美中竞争是由这两个系统为自己的公民提供更好的生活所推动的想法。

  • 拜登谈到与中国的竞争使美国人团结起来,但由于中国内部意识形态的混乱和美国深刻的政治分歧,这是不可能的。

  • 中国最近的人口恐慌导致取消了对单身母亲的限制,允许她们登记无限数量的孩子,而不论其婚姻状况如何。

  • 此举有可能为代孕和同性恋父母开辟更多空间。

  • 然而,传统家庭的母系模式仍然是中国的普遍趋势,单身母亲和她们的孩子仍然面临歧视。

  • 中国的单身母亲以前曾面临严厉的惩罚,如罚款和无法获得孩子的户口。

  • 因此,一些单身母亲采取了假结婚或贿赂的方式绕过这个系统。

  • 四川的新政策旨在减轻单身母亲及其子女的负担,允许她们为不限数量的子女登记。

  • 对于四川的新政策,人们既有乐观的态度,也有怀疑的态度。

  • 虽然它为单身母亲及其子女提供了更多空间,但对她们的歧视和社会偏见仍是一种普遍趋势。

  • 新政策是否会给中国的单身母亲带来真正和持久的变化,还有待观察。

  • 瑞幸咖啡是一家强调廉价在线订购的扩张型连锁店,在2020年发生大规模丑闻后,又出现了复苏。

  • 这一丑闻导致其在美国破产,一些首席执行官被解雇。

  • 尽管如此,瑞幸的股价正在蓬勃发展,该公司现在声称在中国拥有比其他任何咖啡店更多的分店,包括仅在1月份就开设了近500家。

  • 瑞幸现在正计划向东南亚进行认真的扩张,采用与众多小型分店相同的商业模式,以网上订单为重点。

  • 尽管中国的大多数公司都遭受了COVID-19的封锁和限制,但该公司去年仍能迅速发展。

  • 在2022年7月至9月期间,瑞幸的收入比前一年增加了66%。

  • 瑞幸咖啡在面对丑闻和全球大流行病时表现出的韧性,证明了其商业模式的力量。

  • 它在东南亚的快速扩张可能会进一步巩固其作为全球领先咖啡店之一的地位。

  • 尽管有坎坷的过去,瑞幸似乎正朝着成为全球咖啡市场的主要参与者迈进。

  • 中国企业对以百度为首的新一波人工智能技术热火朝天。

  • 虽然中国版的ChatGPT还没有正式上市,但用户已经从中获得了价值。

  • 尽管人们担心中国正在赢得人工智能竞赛,但在实际产品方面,美国是领先的。

  • 在中国,ChatGPT正被用来帮助中国共产党员使用可靠的陈词滥调写 “自我批评”。

  • 这个过程已经被ChatGPT自动化,尽管这些文件的预写版本已经可以使用。

  • 人工智能是一个快速增长的领域,中国和美国处于竞赛的最前沿。

  • ChatGPT只是一个例子,说明人工智能如何被用于自动化过程,包括在意识形态研究中。

  • China's Spy Balloon Is Not a Test of Will

  • Last Saturday, a Chinese balloon was shot down off the coast of South Carolina and recovered by the U.S.

  • China claims the balloon was a meteorological device that went off course.

  • It is unlikely the balloon was a deliberate provocation, as it would not benefit China in any way.

  • China has been experimenting with a surveillance balloon network for years, including intrusions into foreign airspace.

  • The balloon in question was visible to thousands of people on the ground for eight days, suggesting a mistake rather than a deliberate act.

  • Possible explanations for the balloon’s course include cold weather and a lack of control from Beijing.

  • U.S. pundits have raised the possibility of a “balloon gap”, assuming a cunning motivation behind the surveillance.

  • The Chinese military is particularly opaque, making its mistakes less obvious.

  • The balloon may be a useful tool, or an expensive boondoggle.

  • Pundits and politicians in Washington tend to view China’s actions as a test of US will, with any reaction other than extreme seen as a sign of US weakness.

  • US military took a sensible approach to wait before shooting down the balloon, but this was seen as a sign of weakness.

  • US politicians have used China as a weapon in domestic partisan fights, making exaggerated and inaccurate claims about the balloon.

  • Senator Marco Rubio blamed the Biden administration for not shooting down the balloon sooner, implying that anything less than an extreme reaction is a sign of weakness.

  • The US right wing speculated that the balloon contained “bioweapons” and Biden was “compromised” by China, detached from reality.

  • Some Republican lawmakers posted images with guns promising to shoot down the balloon themselves.

  • US politicians’ reactions to China’s actions risks transforming minor provocations into high-stakes conflicts.

  • US politicians have used China as a weapon to advance domestic partisan fights, making exaggerated and inaccurate claims about the balloon.

  • US military took a sensible approach to wait before shooting down the balloon, but this was seen as a sign of weakness.

  • Throughout the Cold War, paranoia and lack of transparency led to the U.S. being convinced of an imaginary “missile gap” and caused damage to U.S. policy at home and abroad.

  • Mutual surveillance is a reality that requires a measured reaction, however airspace violations can lead to dangerous mistakes.

  • The Chinese government often suspects foreign meddling where there is none, and this has been demonstrated in the recent surveillance balloon crisis.

  • In other news, China has trained squirrels to sniff out drugs.

  • President Biden’s State of the Union address on Tuesday focused on foreign policy, specifically the U.S.-China competition. He emphasized that while the United States seeks cooperation, it also sees competition with China in both economic and ideological terms.

  • The narrative shift in the last two years has been influenced by China’s faltering economy and failed zero-COVID policy, and the idea of the U.S.-China competition being driven by the two systems offering a better life to their own citizens.

  • Biden spoke of competition with China as bringing Americans together, but this is unlikely due to the ideological confusion within China and the deep political divisions in the United States.

  • China’s recent demographic panic has led to the lifting of restrictions on single mothers, allowing them to register an unlimited number of children regardless of their marital status.

  • This move could potentially open up more space for surrogacy and gay parenthood.

  • However, natalist models of the traditional family remain the general trend in China, and single mothers and their children still face discrimination.

  • Single mothers in China have previously faced harsh penalties, such as fines and an inability to receive the child’s hukou.

  • As a result, some single mothers resorted to fake marriages or bribing their way around the system.

  • The new policy in Sichuan aims to ease the burden on single mothers and their children by allowing them to register an unlimited number of children.

  • The new policy in Sichuan has been met with a mix of optimism and skepticism.

  • While it provides more space for single mothers and their children, there is still a general trend of discrimination and social stigma towards them.

  • It remains to be seen if the new policy will bring about real and lasting change for single mothers in China.

  • Luckin Coffee, an expansionist chain with an emphasis on cheap online ordering, has seen a resurgence after a massive scandal in 2020.

  • This scandal resulted in bankruptcy in the US and the firing of some of its chief executives.

  • Despite this, Luckin’s stock price is booming and the company now claims to have more branches than any other coffee outlet in China, including almost 500 opened in January alone.

  • Luckin is now planning a serious expansion into Southeast Asia, using the same business model of numerous small outlets with a focus on online orders.

  • The company managed to grow rapidly last year, despite most companies in China suffering from COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions.

  • Between July and September of 2022, Luckin’s revenue increased by 66 percent compared to the previous year.

  • Luckin Coffee’s resilience in the face of scandal and a global pandemic is a testament to the power of its business model.

  • Its rapid expansion into Southeast Asia is likely to further solidify its position as one of the leading coffee outlets in the world.

  • Despite its rocky past, Luckin appears to be well on its way to becoming a major player in the global coffee market.

  • Chinese firms are in a frenzy about the new wave of artificial intelligence technologies, spearheaded by Baidu.

  • Although the Chinese version of ChatGPT is not officially available in China, users are already getting value out of it.

  • The US is ahead in terms of actual products, despite fears that China is winning the AI race.

  • In China, ChatGPT is being used to help Chinese Communist Party members write “self-criticisms” using reliable cliches.

  • This process has been automated by ChatGPT, although pre-written versions of these documents were already available.

  • AI is a rapidly growing field with China and the US at the forefront of the race.

  • ChatGPT is just one example of how AI is being used to automate processes, including in ideological studies.

链接:China's Spy Balloon Is Not a Test of Will