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中国官方公布的整个大流行病的Covid死亡人数是83,150人，但是流行病学家认为这是个巨大的低估数字。四个独立的学术小组一致估计，科维德浪潮可能造成100万至150万人死亡。
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官方数字将使中国在整个大流行病期间成为人均死亡率最低的主要国家，但是按照估计的死亡率，中国已经超过了许多亚洲国家的官方死亡率。
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有多少人死亡的问题对执政的共产党来说具有巨大的政治意义，因为在大流行病的早期，中国严厉的封锁措施在很大程度上遏制了冠状病毒的传播。最高领导人习近平将这一成功描述为中国优于西方的证据。
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研究人员使用各种方法来衡量感染者的数量和中国疫苗的有效性。
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这些方法包括过去在香港和上海爆发的数据，详细的计算机模型，以及官方抽样数据。
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估算结果表明，疫情的规模远远大于官方死亡人数的说法。
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中国在疫情方面的排名低于其他国家，如德国、意大利和美国。
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这些国家在有疫苗之前经历了病毒的加速传播。
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德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的生物学和统计学教授劳伦-安塞尔-梅耶斯评论说，这些数据表明疫情是爆炸性的。
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这些数据可用于指导未来疫苗和公共卫生措施的开发。
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中国官员只公布了涉及呼吸衰竭的死亡人数，没有公布那些死于肝脏、肾脏或心脏衰竭的人。
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1月中旬，政府开始公布其他死亡数据，但是这些数字仍然不完整。
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最明显的是，它们不包括在医院外死亡的人。
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官方数字是对所有科威德死亡的低报。
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从2018年到2020年，中国所有死亡人数中只有约五分之一发生在医院。
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在最近的高峰期，医院仍然超负荷运转，重症监护室的床位不足以应对高峰期。
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专家认为医院的死亡人数可能仍然只占总死亡人数的一小部分。
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北卡罗来纳大学的人口学家Yong Cai说，官方数字 “肯定是对所有Covid死亡的低报”。
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南安普敦大学流行病学家赖胜杰指出，重症监护室的床位不足以应对高峰。
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感染该病毒的人数不详，因此很难了解这一流行病的范围。
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中国政府在12月关闭了检测中心，并规定自测结果的报告是自愿的。
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包括北京在内的九个城市已经停止公布季度火化总数。
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上海复旦大学的科学家们利用上海爆发的Omicron病毒的数据来估计该病毒可能在中国大陆传播的速度。
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他们使用了一个疾病模型，对I.C.U.床位、封锁何时结束以及人们接受额外疫苗的速度做出假设。
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研究人员假设严格的控制措施将被取消，允许病毒迅速传播。
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研究人员所做的假设可用于更好地了解病毒在中国大陆的传播情况。
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这篇论文的重点是治疗、疫苗接种和其他措施如何能够减缓这一浪潮并减少伤亡。
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该研究假设在春季和夏季爆发，此时更多的人在户外活动，这意味着传播速度将相对缓慢。
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纽约市立大学的传染病模型专家Bruce Y. Lee表示，这一估计可能是保守的，因为病毒是在冬季爆发的。
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中国爆发的死亡人数将受到受感染者的年龄和行动的影响。
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香港大学的三位科学家通过研究以前在其他国家爆发疫情时每个年龄组有多少人死亡，并根据中国的人口状况调整数据来估计死亡人数。
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一些研究人员进行了类似的计算，并考虑到了中国农历新年前后旅行的增加。
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研究人员估计，到1月底，这股热潮可能会导致约97万人死亡。
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这项工作的最终结论是坚定不移的。终止 "动态清零 "政策可能会使卫生保健系统不堪重负，估计会造成160万人死亡。
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哈佛大学的流行病学家Bill Hanage赞扬了为衡量假日旅行对传播的影响程度而采取的方法。
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第三个研究小组利用在疫情最严重时期过去后获得的信息来估计有多少人被感染。
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这个团队由德克萨斯大学的Meyers博士和香港大学的Zhanwei Du组成，他们利用12月中旬至1月中旬期间接受检测的数十万人的数据，推断出90%的人口在一个多月的时间里被感染了。
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Bill Hanage说，很难精确地确定假日旅行对传播的影响程度，但原则上称赞了这种方法。
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第三组研究人员使用12月中旬至1月中旬期间接受测试的人的数据来估计有多少人被感染。
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这些数据被用来推断90%的人在一个多月的时间里被感染了。
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Bill Hanage说，很难准确衡量假日旅行对传播的影响。
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第三组研究人员使用12月中旬至1月中旬期间接受检测的人的数据来估计感染人数。
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这一数据被用来推断90%的人在一个多月的时间里被感染了。
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中国的研究人员发现，80-90%的人口可能已经感染了COVID-19。
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一个结合了疫情爆发时间、死亡率和疫苗接种效果的统计模型估计有150万人死亡，可信的范围是120万至170万。
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众多因素可能会影响抽样计划的准确性，使得这些数字 “高度不确定”。
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即使有不确定性，疾病建模者发现，死亡人数很可能比官方统计的数字高一个数量级。
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没有参与这个项目的流行病学家说，高感染率是合理的。
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1月，一位主要的政府流行病学家在微博上说，80%的人口已经被感染了。
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欧洲公司在中国的业务在12月时，其员工的感染率达到90%。
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中国欧盟商会主席Joerg Wuttke在一次采访中向《泰晤士报》报告了这一信息。
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由于各种因素的不确定性，真正的感染人数很难准确衡量。
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哥伦比亚大学的流行病学家和环境健康科学教授Jeffrey Shaman估计，中国受感染者的死亡率约为0.15%，或者约为每650人中有1人。香港大学的流行病学家Ben Cowling估计，如果中国8200万60岁及以上未接种疫苗或接种疫苗少于三剂的人中有80%被感染，他们中的100多万人会死亡。
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各种因素可以平衡死亡率，例如中国使用与美国不同的疫苗。此外，中国人口在疫情爆发时接触病毒的机会较少，使其更容易受到影响。
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中国是世界上唯一一个面对其第一波主要感染的国家，没有做任何尝试来减缓它，导致考林博士推测这是现代历史上呼吸道大流行病毒的最快传播。这将导致估计有90万至140万人因该病毒而死亡。
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China’s official Covid death toll for the entire pandemic is 83,150 people, but epidemiologists believe this is a vast undercount. Four separate academic teams have converged on estimates that the Covid wave may have killed between 1 million and 1.5 million people.
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The official numbers would give China the lowest death rate per capita of any major country over the entirety of the pandemic, but at the estimated levels of mortality, China would already have surpassed official rates of death in many Asian countries.
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The question of how many people died has enormous political relevance for the ruling Communist Party, as early in the pandemic China’s harsh lockdowns largely kept the coronavirus at bay. Xi Jinping, the top leader, has portrayed this success as evidence of China’s superiority over the West.
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Researchers used various approaches to measure the number of infected people and the effectiveness of China’s vaccines.
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These approaches included data from past outbreaks in Hong Kong and Shanghai, detailed computer models, and official sampling data.
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Estimates suggest that the outbreak was much larger than the official death count suggests.
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China’s ranking in terms of the outbreak is lower than other countries such as Germany, Italy, and the United States.
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These countries experienced an accelerated spread of the virus before vaccines were available.
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Lauren Ancel Meyers, a professor of biology and statistics at the University of Texas at Austin, commented that the data suggest that the outbreak was explosive.
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The data could be used to inform the development of future vaccines and public health measures.
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Chinese officials only announced deaths that involved respiratory failure, leaving out those who died of liver, kidney or cardiac failure.
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Mid-January, the government started releasing data on other deaths, but the figures are still incomplete.
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Most glaringly, they exclude people who died outside hospitals.
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Official figure is an underreport of all Covid deaths.
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From 2018 to 2020, only around one-fifth of all deaths in China occurred in hospitals.
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Hospitals were still overloaded during the recent surge, and I.C.U. beds were not enough to cope with the peak.
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Experts believe hospital deaths probably still account for only a small proportion of total deaths.
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University of North Carolina demographer Yong Cai says the official figure is “certainly an underreport of all Covid deaths.”
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University of Southampton epidemiologist Shengjie Lai notes that I.C.U. beds were not enough to cope with the peak.
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The number of people infected with the virus is unknown, making it difficult to understand the reach of the epidemic.
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The Chinese government shut down testing centers and made reporting of self-test results voluntary in December.
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Nine cities, including Beijing, have stopped publishing quarterly cremation totals.
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Scientists from Fudan University in Shanghai used data from an Omicron outbreak in Shanghai to estimate how quickly the virus might spread in mainland China.
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They used a disease model to make assumptions about I.C.U. beds, when a lockdown would end, and how quickly people would receive additional vaccines.
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The researchers assumed that strict control measures would be removed, allowing the virus to spread quickly.
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The assumptions made by the researchers could be used to better understand the spread of the virus in mainland China.
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The focus of the paper was on how treatment, vaccination and other measures might be able to slow the wave and reduce the toll.
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The study assumed an outbreak during the spring and summer, when more people are outdoors, meaning the rate of transmission would be relatively slow.
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Bruce Y. Lee, an infectious disease modeler at City University of New York, suggested the estimate might be conservative as the virus took off in the winter.
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The toll of China’s outbreak would be influenced by the age and movements of those infected.
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Three scientists at the University of Hong Kong estimated deaths by looking at how many people in each age group died during previous outbreaks in other countries and adjusting the data for China’s demographics.
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Several researchers made similar calculations and took into account the increased travel around China’s Lunar New Year.
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The researchers estimated that the surge might kill about 970,000 people by the end of January.
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The work was unwavering in its ultimate conclusion: Ending the “zero Covid” policy was likely to overwhelm the health care system, producing an estimated 1.6 million deaths.
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Bill Hanage, a Harvard epidemiologist, praised the approach taken to measure the degree to which holiday travel affected transmission.
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A third team of researchers used information that became available after the worst of the outbreak had passed to estimate how many people were infected.
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This team, consisting of Dr. Meyers at the University of Texas and Zhanwei Du of the University of Hong Kong, used data from hundreds of thousands of people who were tested between mid-December and mid-January to infer that 90 percent of the population was infected in little more than a month.
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Bill Hanage said that it would be hard to pin down precisely the degree to which holiday travel affected transmission, but praised the approach in principle.
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The third team of researchers used data from people who were tested between mid-December and mid-January to estimate how many people were infected.
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This data was used to infer that 90 percent of the population was infected in little more than a month.
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Bill Hanage said it would be difficult to accurately measure the effect of holiday travel on transmission.
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The third team of researchers used data from people who were tested between mid-December and mid-January to estimate the number of people infected.
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This data was used to infer that 90 percent of the population was infected in little more than a month.
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Researchers in China found that 80-90% of the population may have been infected with COVID-19.
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A statistical model incorporating the timing of the outbreak, fatality rates and the effect of vaccinations estimated 1.5 million deaths, with a plausible range of 1.2 to 1.7 million.
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Numerous factors could affect the accuracy of the sampling program, making the figures “highly uncertain”.
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Even with the uncertainty, disease modelers found that the number of deaths was very likely to be an order of magnitude higher than the official tally.
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Epidemiologists not involved with the project said the high infection rate was plausible.
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In January, a leading government epidemiologist said on Weibo that 80 percent of the population had been infected.
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European companies’ operations in China saw infection rates of 90 percent among their employees in December.
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Joerg Wuttke, the president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, reported this information to The Times in an interview.
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The true number of infections is difficult to accurately gauge due to the uncertainty of factors.
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Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist and professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University, estimated that the fatality rate of people infected in China was around 0.15 percent, or about 1 in 650 people. Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong, estimated that if 80 percent of the 82 million people in China aged 60 and older unvaccinated or with fewer than three vaccine doses were infected, more than a million of them would die.
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Various factors could balance out the fatality rate, such as China using different vaccines than the U.S. Additionally, China’s population had been less exposed to the virus by the time the outbreak hit, making it more susceptible.
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China is the only country in the world that faced its first major wave of infections without making any attempt to slow it, resulting in what Dr. Cowling conjectured was the fastest spread of a respiratory pandemic virus in modern history. This would result in an estimated 900,000 to 1.4 million people having died due to the virus.