习近平送的大礼太烫手!中菲榴莲外交引发东南亚担忧|南华早报

  • 达沃市被称为 “菲律宾榴莲之都”,其产量几乎占全国榴莲收成的80%。

  • 1月初,菲律宾和中国达成了一项新的双边协议,允许菲律宾的新鲜榴莲首次出口到中国。

  • 达沃市一家榴莲农场的经营者Faye Oguio表示,由于中国的人口众多,中国是一个重要的出口目的地。

  • 菲律宾榴莲出口到中国的消息引起了泰国、越南和马来西亚等其他榴莲生产国的神经紧张。

  • 观察家们越来越多地将政治意义归于榴莲贸易,尽管它在中国和东南亚每年数万亿美元的贸易中只是一个小项目。

  • 由于为中国保留了大量的榴莲,达沃的榴莲市场目前处于供不应求的状态。

  • 菲律宾和中国之间的协议引起了其他榴莲生产国对自己向中国出口榴莲的担忧。

  • 榴莲是一种原产于东南亚的热带水果,具有强烈的气味和带刺的果皮。

  • 中国是榴莲的最大市场,在中国的烹饪文化中,这种水果被用于制作蛋糕和糕点。

  • 北京大学东南亚研究助理教授谢侃侃认为,榴莲是中国和该地区特殊关系的一个象征。

  • 在过去的一年里,中国向更多国家开放了新鲜榴莲的市场,这被称为 “榴莲外交”。

  • 这是因为中国榴莲爱好者的胃口越来越大,以及中国政府希望巩固其与东南亚国家联盟(Asean)的关系而促成的。

  • 区域全面经济伙伴关系下的优惠关税和快速通关进一步增加了该业务的潜力。

  • 如果政治关系恶化,更紧密的接触有可能成为一个巨大的筹码来源。

  • 人们相信,榴莲外交有可能加强中国和东盟的政治关系。

  • 黄大鹏的TC榴莲公司在过去五年中的年增长率超过了50%。

  • 来自全国各地的中国消费者已经形成了对榴莲的喜好。

  • 2017年,中国进口了82.4万吨新鲜榴莲,价值超过40亿美元。

  • 泰国一直是快速增长的市场的主要受益者,因为只有来自该国的新鲜榴莲被允许进口。

  • 马来西亚的高端市场份额较小,以冷冻榴莲为主。

  • 9月,北京批准越南的51家榴莲种植商和25家榴莲包装公司向中国出口新鲜作物。

  • 越南与中国的陆地边界使贸易更容易,这增强了越南榴莲的竞争力。

  • 位于胡志明市的商业咨询公司Mazars的Jack Nguyen表示,新鲜度是决定榴莲质量的关键。

  • 越南正在大量种植,需要出口一些农作物。

  • 中国允许通过官方渠道进口越南的农产品,这表明他们倾向于改善与其他国家的外交关系。

  • 榴莲出口到中国将是越南的一件大事,因为它标志着中国的巨大市场对进口开放。

  • 榴莲出口到中国将有助于占人口很大一部分的越南农民进入中国市场购买其他农产品。

  • 这对两国来说都是一个重大举措,因为它标志着中国愿意改善与其他国家的外交关系,并为越南农民提供了进入更大市场的机会。

  • 在不到四个月的时间里,菲律宾已经成为中国第三个被批准的鲜奶出口国。

  • 这个行业预计将产生约1.5亿美元的收入,并在贸易的第一年创造9696个直接和1126个间接就业机会。

  • 中国的投资正在涌向其他东南亚国家,以建立更有效的本地供应链。

  • 美中两国在该地区的竞争正在加剧,但东南亚国家不必在它们之间做出选择。

  • 榴莲是东南亚和中国之间强有力的经济关系中的一小部分,但它具有政治意义。

  • 强劲的经济关系凸显了国家间稳定的外交关系的重要性。

  • 新加坡南洋理工大学S. Rajaratnam国际研究学院助理教授李明江说,东南亚国家仍有回旋余地。

  • 他补充说,榴莲是东南亚和中国之间强有力的经济关系中的一小部分,但它会产生一些政治影响。

  • 两国之间稳定的外交关系因其强大的经济关系而凸显。

  • 去年,中国和东盟是彼此最大的贸易伙伴,总价值达9753亿美元。

  • 菲律宾和越南的农民和出口商对北京的出口绿灯感到兴奋,而马来西亚则担心会失去市场份额。

  • 马来西亚和泰国的优势是政治带来的外溢风险较小。

  • 菲律宾的榴莲可以作为双边关系的政治象征,中国可以将其作为筹码。

  • 此前,由于2012年的对峙,北京曾对菲律宾香蕉实施限制。

  • 越南和菲律宾由于在南中国海的领土争端,可能容易受到中国的贸易惩罚。

  • 菲律宾的榴莲种植者对他们在榴莲出口方面对中国市场的依赖感到担忧。

  • 如果中国突然停止进口榴莲,菲律宾就会有大量过剩的水果,而且很可能会腐烂。

  • 泰国和马来西亚对这个问题不那么担心,因为它们与中国没有政治争端。

  • 广东的一位榴莲进口商Jay Zhong指出,榴莲不是中国人的必需品。

  • 2020年底,由于政治紧张局势,北京非正式地禁止从澳大利亚进口榴莲以及其他商品。

  • 最近,澳大利亚向中国出口新鲜龙虾的申请没有被拒绝,这暗示了两国关系的解冻。

  • Zhong认为,中国不会轻易放弃其最大的一块榴莲市场。

  • 近年来,榴莲越来越受欢迎,使中国市场成为榴莲农户的重要市场。

  • 中国市场对榴莲种植者来说是一个至关重要的市场,中国和其他国家之间的政治局势会对榴莲产业产生很大影响。

  • Davao City is known as the “Durian Capital of the Philippines”, producing almost 80% of the country’s durian harvests.

  • A new bilateral agreement between the Philippines and China in early January allowed for fresh Philippine durians to be exported to China for the first time.

  • Faye Oguio, operator of a durian farm in Davao, remarked that China is a significant destination for exports due to their population.

  • The news of Philippine durians being exported to China caused frayed nerves in other durian-producing countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia.

  • Observers have been increasingly attributing political significance to the durian trade, despite it being a small entry in the trillion-US-dollar annual trade between China and Southeast Asia.

  • The durian market in Davao is currently in short supply as a result of the large amount of durians reserved for China.

  • The agreement between the Philippines and China has caused other durian-producing countries to worry about their own durian exports to China.

  • Durian is a tropical fruit native to Southeast Asia, with a strong smell and a thorny rind.

  • China is the biggest market for Durian, with the fruit being used in cakes and pastries in the nation’s cooking culture.

  • According to Xie Kankan, an assistant professor of Southeast Asian Studies at Peking University, durian is a symbol of the special relations between China and the region.

  • In the past year, China has opened its market to more countries for fresh durians, which has been labelled as “durian diplomacy”.

  • This has been spurred by the growing appetite of Chinese durian lovers, as well as Beijing’s wish to cement its ties with Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).

  • Preferential tariffs and faster customs clearance under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership have further added to the potential of the business.

  • Closer engagement has the potential to be a huge source of leverage if political relations sour.

  • It is believed that durian diplomacy has the potential to strengthen political relations between China and Asean.

  • Huang Dapeng’s TC Durian company has experienced an annual growth rate of more than 50% over the past five years.

  • Chinese consumers from all over the country have developed a taste for durian.

  • In 2017, China imported 824,000 tonnes of fresh durians valued at over US$4 billion.

  • Thailand has been the main beneficiary of the fast-growing market, as only fresh durians from the country were allowed to be imported.

  • Malaysia had a smaller high-end market share, dominated by frozen durians.

  • In September, Beijing approved 51 durian growers and 25 durian-packaging companies from Vietnam to export fresh crops to China.

  • Vietnam’s land border with China makes trade easier, which enhances the competitiveness of its durians.

  • Freshness is key to the quality of durian, according to Jack Nguyen of the business advisory firm Mazars in Ho Chi Minh City.

  • Vietnam is growing a lot and needs to export some of their crop.

  • China is showing their inclination to improve diplomatic relations with other countries by allowing imports of Vietnam’s agricultural products through official channels.

  • Durian exports to China would be something big in Vietnam, as it signifies that China’s huge market is open to imports.

  • Durian exports to China would help Vietnamese farmers, who account for a large portion of the population, to have access to the Chinese market for other agricultural products.

  • This is a significant move for both countries, as it signifies China’s willingness to improve diplomatic relations with other countries and provides an opportunity for Vietnamese farmers to access a larger market.

  • The Philippines has become China’s third approved fresh-durian exporter in less than four months.

  • This industry is expected to generate around US$150 million in income and create 9,696 direct and 1,126 indirect jobs in the first year of trade.

  • Chinese investments are flocking to other Southeast Asian countries to build up more efficient local supply chains.

  • US-China competition is increasing in the region, but Southeast Asian countries do not have to choose between them.

  • Durian is a small part of the strong economic relationship between Southeast Asia and China, but it has political implications.

  • Robust economic ties highlight the importance of stable diplomatic relations between the countries.

  • Li Mingjiang, assistant professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said there is still room for Southeast Asian countries to manoeuvre.

  • He added that durian is a small part of the strong economic relationship between Southeast Asia and China, but it can have some political implications.

  • Stable diplomatic relations between the countries are highlighted by their strong economic ties.

  • Last year, China and ASEAN were each other’s biggest trade partners, totaling $975.3 billion in value.

  • Filipino and Vietnamese farmers and exporters are excited by Beijing’s green light on exports, while Malaysia worries about losing market share.

  • Malaysia and Thailand have the advantage of less spillover risk from politics.

  • Philippine durians can be used as a political symbol of bilateral relations, which China can use as leverage.

  • Beijing had previously imposed restrictions on Filipino bananas due to a stand-off in 2012.

  • Vietnam and the Philippines could be vulnerable to trade punishment from China due to their territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

  • Durian farmers in the Philippines are concerned about their reliance on the Chinese market for durian exports.

  • If China were to suddenly stop importing durian, the Philippines would be left with a large surplus of the fruit that would likely rot.

  • Thailand and Malaysia are not as concerned about this issue as they do not have political disputes with China.

  • Jay Zhong, a durian importer in Guangdong, points out that durians are not a necessity for Chinese people.

  • In late 2020, Beijing unofficially banned the import of durians, along with other commodities, from Australia due to political tensions.

  • A recent application by Australia for fresh lobster exports to China has not been rejected, hinting at a thaw in relations.

  • Zhong believes that China will not easily give up its biggest piece of the durian market.

  • Durians have become increasingly popular in recent years, making the Chinese market an important one for durian farmers.

  • The Chinese market is a critical one for durian farmers and the political situation between China and other countries can have a big impact on the durian industry.

链接:China’s durian demand is a godsend for Philippine trade, but for other Asian countries ‘durian diplomacy’ raises concerns | South China Morning Post

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这种担忧,可以用作任何事情,用作任何大国。毫无意义。

不知不覺間,東盟已是中國第一大貿易伙伴,而且還會因爲RCEP 而加速成長。

有這樣大貿易量的現實利益,又沒有什麼意識形態的羈絆,中國和東盟完全可以處理好南海問題。

南海安,台海就搞不起風浪。

六弟快趕超小六子了