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乌克兰战争深刻地改变了全球能源市场，俄罗斯的入侵和西方的制裁影响了石油和天然气市场，推迟了气候目标，并迫使各国重新评估其供应关系。
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欧盟国家看到俄罗斯能源出口的减少，而美国和中东则从高能源价格中受益。
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中国作为世界上最大的能源进口国和消费国，还没有看到乌克兰战争对其能源供应的长期影响。
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乌克兰战争对能源市场产生了全球性的影响，俄罗斯对欧盟的能源出口减少，美国和中东地区从高能源价格中受益，而对中国的长期影响还有待观察。
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战争加强了中国的石油供应安全，使他们能够以折扣价购买俄罗斯原油。
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中国对石油和天然气进口的依赖，以及他们与俄罗斯的大量贸易，使他们在全球能源市场变得更加政治化的情况下面临风险。
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在过去的几年里，中国进口了70%以上的原油和40%以上的天然气。
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原油是中俄贸易中唯一最有价值的商品，占中国进口的一半。
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去年，中国的俄罗斯原油进口量增加了8%，但由于乌克兰战争导致的能源价格上涨，以美元计算的进口量增加了44%。
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由于战争使中国成为俄罗斯碳氢化合物的重要市场，中国在未来的新供应合同谈判中可能具有杠杆作用。
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这场战争增加了中国石油和天然气进口的重要性，以及他们与俄罗斯的贸易，这使他们容易受到全球能源市场政治的影响。
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标普全球商品观察的全球需求和亚洲分析主管Kang Wu表示，中国没有从战争造成的价格飙升、通胀上升和利率升高中受益。
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中国不得不为进口石油支付更多的费用，而俄罗斯不得不为每一桶石油的销售提供大幅折扣。
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过去一年，中国通过以较低的价格进口更多的俄罗斯原油来减轻经济风险。
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根据《能源情报》1月发布的报告，全球能源行业在2023年的首要任务是安全和可负担性，前景仍被地缘政治动荡所笼罩。
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俄罗斯石油流从欧洲向新市场的全球改道可能会得到巩固，中国可能会加强。
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俄罗斯天然气流的改道将更加困难和耗时，需要新的基础设施和亚洲，特别是中国的胃口。
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报告称，全球能源危机可能会进一步加深中国和俄罗斯之间的关系。
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一个没有地缘政治冲突的稳定的石油市场将是最好的。
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报告认为，中国和俄罗斯在未来可能会更加紧密地联系在一起。
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中国已经认识到，它不能在能源方面过于依赖一个国家。
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国家之间的关系是基于利益，而不是友谊。
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2021年，俄罗斯是中国的第二大石油进口来源。
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中国从沙特阿拉伯进口的石油占17.2%。
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中国当局和公司在与俄罗斯签署长期能源和投资协议方面采取了谨慎的态度。
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目前还没有签署关于西伯利亚之力2号管道的协议，中国的公司也没有在俄罗斯的上游购买资产。
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中国能源专家王能全说，中国已经知道，在能源方面不能过于依赖一个国家。
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2021年，中国从沙特阿拉伯进口17.2%的石油，从俄罗斯进口16.9%。
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中国当局和公司对与俄罗斯签署长期能源和投资协议采取了谨慎的态度。
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西伯利亚动力2号天然气管道由俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司建造，每年将通过蒙古向中国北部输送500亿立方米的天然气。
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预计将于2024年开始施工
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俄罗斯目前是仅次于土库曼斯坦的第二大管道天然气供应商
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中国石油天然气集团公司与俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司签订的通过该管道供应天然气的合同，估计在30年内价值4000亿美元。
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天然气的付款将以卢布和人民币结算，以努力避免西方的压力。
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中国认为陆地上的能源输送更安全
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中国可能不愿意承诺从俄罗斯增加一条天然气管道
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此观点由美国非盈利研究和分析机构CNA的高级研究科学家Elizabeth Wishnick分享。
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中国和俄罗斯一直在就一条新的能源产品管道进行谈判，然而中国国家主席习近平还没有批准它。
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俄罗斯希望在习近平预计对莫斯科的访问期间达成协议。
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中国对俄罗斯不可预测的领导层和潜在的长期不稳定持谨慎态度。
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在过去的一年里，中国增加了从俄罗斯的进口，然而从其他主要供应商的进口却保持稳定。
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与沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔和美国等国家签署了新的长期石油和天然气合同，这将导致这些来源的供应增加。
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俄罗斯需要增加中国对俄罗斯天然气的购买，而不是反过来。
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中国的能源进口在未来可能会受到更严格的审查，然而由于技术和物流问题，预计短期内不会出现重大的政治驱动的变化。
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转用不同的原油需要调整炼油工艺，并可能产生利润率问题。
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公司在进口时还必须考虑到合同承诺和运输成本。
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如果中国试图用其他国家（包括那些对莫斯科实施制裁的国家）的能源来替代从俄罗斯进口的能源，可能会面临政策上的打击。
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能源出口的增加可能会导致国内能源价格的上涨。
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如果中国继续从俄罗斯购买能源，它将不得不在与美国和欧洲的关系中付出外交代价。
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"经济就是经济 "的观点已经过时，企业必须考虑与之合作者的价值观。
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中国必须权衡继续从俄罗斯购买能源的潜在后果，包括外交成本和潜在的政策反击。
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企业之间的关系必须超越经济范畴，包括对共同价值观的考虑。
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The Ukraine war has profoundly altered the global energy market, with Russian invasion and Western sanctions impacting oil and gas markets, delaying climate goals, and forcing countries to re-evaluate their supply relationships.
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EU countries have seen a decrease in Russian energy exports, while the US and Middle East have benefited from high energy prices.
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China, the world’s largest energy importer and consumer, has yet to see the long-term effects of the Ukraine war on their energy supply.
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The Ukraine war has had a global impact on energy markets, with Russia’s energy exports to the EU decreasing, and the US and Middle East benefiting from high energy prices, while the long-term effects on China remain to be seen.
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War has enhanced China’s oil supply security by enabling them to buy Russian crude at a discount.
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China’s reliance on oil and gas imports, as well as their heavy trade with Russia, leaves them exposed as the global energy market has become more politicised.
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Over the past few years, China has imported more than 70% of its crude oil and more than 40% of its natural gas.
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Crude oil is the single most valuable commodity in China-Russia trade, accounting for half of Chinese imports.
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Last year, China’s Russian crude imports increased by 8% in volume, but 44% in US dollar terms due to energy prices rising from the Ukraine war.
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China may have leverage in future negotiations over new supply contracts due to the war making them an important market for Russian hydrocarbons.
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The war has increased the importance of China’s oil and gas imports, as well as their trade with Russia, which leaves them vulnerable to global energy market politics.
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Kang Wu, head of Global Demand and Asia Analytics at S&P Global Commodity Insights, stated that China has not benefited from the price spikes, higher inflation, and elevated interest rates caused by the war.
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China has to pay more for imported oil, and Russia has to offer deep discounts for every barrel of oil sold.
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China has mitigated economic risks by importing more Russian crude at lower prices in the past year.
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According to a report published in January by Energy Intelligence, the global energy industry has a priority of security and affordability in 2023, with the outlook still clouded by geopolitical turmoil.
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The global re-routing of Russian oil flows from Europe to new markets is likely to consolidate, and China could step up.
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Re-routing Russian gas flows will be harder and time consuming, requiring new infrastructure and Asian, especially Chinese, appetite.
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The global energy crisis is likely to deepen ties further between China and Russia, according to the report.
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A stable oil market without geopolitical conflict would be preferable.
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The report suggests that China and Russia could be more closely aligned in the future.
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China has learned that it cannot be too dependent on one country for energy.
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Relations between countries are based on interests, not friendship.
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Russia was the second largest source of oil imports for China in 2021.
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China imported 17.2% of its oil from Saudi Arabia.
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Chinese authorities and companies are taking a cautious approach to signing long-term energy and investment deals with Russia.
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There has been no agreement signed for the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline and China’s companies have not bought assets in the Russian upstream.
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Wang Nengquan, a Chinese energy expert, said that China has learned that it cannot be too dependent on one country for energy.
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China imported 17.2% of its oil from Saudi Arabia and 16.9% from Russia in 2021.
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Chinese authorities and companies are taking a cautious approach to signing long-term energy and investment deals with Russia.
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Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline is being built by Gazprom and will pump 50 billion cubic metres of gas annually to northern China via Mongolia
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Construction is expected to start in 2024
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Russia is currently the second-largest pipeline gas supplier after Turkmenistan
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Contract between China National Petroleum Corporation and Gazprom to supply gas via the pipeline was estimated to be worth US$400 billion over 30 years
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Payments for the gas will be settled in roubles and yuan in an effort to insulate from Western pressure
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China views land-based energy deliveries as more secure
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China might not want to commit to an additional gas pipeline from Russia
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This opinion shared by Elizabeth Wishnick, senior research scientist at CNA, a US-based non-profit research and analysis organization
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China and Russia have been in talks regarding a new pipeline for energy products, however Chinese President Xi Jinping has not yet approved it.
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Russia is hoping to secure a deal during an expected visit by Xi to Moscow.
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China is wary of the unpredictable leadership in Russia and the potential for long-term instability.
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China has increased imports from Russia in the past year, however imports from other major suppliers have remained stable.
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New long-term oil and gas contracts have been signed with countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United States, which will lead to increased supplies from these sources.
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Russia needs to increase Chinese purchases of Russian natural gas, not the other way around.
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China’s energy imports might come under greater scrutiny in the future, however no major politically driven changes are expected in the short term due to technical and logistical issues.
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Switching to a different crude requires adjustment in the refining processes, and can incur issues in profit margins.
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Companies must also factor in contractual commitments and transport costs when importing.
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China may face policy blowback if it seeks to replace energy imported from Russia with energy from other countries, including those who impose sanctions on Moscow.
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An increase in energy exports could lead to an increase in domestic energy prices.
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China will have to pay diplomatic costs in its relations with the US and Europe if it continues to buy energy from Russia.
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The idea that “economy is economy” is outdated, and businesses must consider the values of those they work with.
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China must weigh the potential consequences of continuing to purchase energy from Russia, including diplomatic costs and potential policy blowback.
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Relationships between businesses must go beyond economics and include consideration of shared values.
链接：How China’s energy outlook has been reshaped by the Ukraine war | South China Morning Post