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中国国家主席习近平在2022年10月获得了历史性的第三个任期，许多西方分析家将他誉为现代的皇帝。
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最近发生的事件，包括混乱地退出中国的新冠清零政策和一个流氓间谍气球，表明习近平正在走下坡路。
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习近平以喜欢下大赌注而闻名，例如他的反腐整顿和他在世界舞台上的毫不掩饰的立场。
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习近平的大赌注使他的国内外对手失去平衡，并限制了中国官僚机构的权力。
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习近平对党的主导地位的执着强调，使官僚机构过于孤立和自治领地萌芽的窘境得到了加速。
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习近平的 "政治震慑 "方法可能会使北京变得不那么危险，而不是那些推动与中国进行新冷战的人想要承认的那样。
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要想知道习近平政策的影响，需要耐心、信心和对中国政策的坚定承诺，而这一切都只植根于国家利益。
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西方分析家们强烈谴责这些创新，认为它们对中国来说是毁灭，对其他国家来说是威胁，但现在做出这种自信的判断还为时尚早。
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中国在2022年底突然放弃了其新冠清零政策，令许多观察家感到震惊。
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当习近平的得力助手李强被任命时，人们对 "救世主总理 "的希望破灭了。
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观察家们将习近平废除该政策的决定解释为他被几个拿着白纸的学生吓坏了的证据。
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习近平为前总统江泽民举行了隆重的葬礼，江泽民在街头抗议活动后几天就去世了。
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据称，习近平和他的政治局担心江泽民的死会引发更多的动乱。
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分析认为，习近平要么是个傻瓜，要么是个狂热分子，而他显然不是。
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习近平很可能在灾难性的上海封锁事件后开始重新考虑这一政策。
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习近平似乎已经决定将胡锦涛的盟友从政治局中甩出去，这是一场意外的政变。
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习近平需要尽可能多地控制风险，因此放任新冠疫情并不是一个选项。
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习近平赌博式放弃了新冠清零，这得到了回报，因为没有出现许多专家预测的逃离中国的新变种或反弹潮。
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这使得中国经济能够比预期更早地恢复增长。
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中国媒体项目的David Bandurski指出，官方对江泽民去世的处理更多的是仪式性的，而不是启示性的。
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政治局有充足的时间为江泽民的去世做准备，因此它对抗议活动的关注度较低。
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胡锦涛参与悼念仪式被认为是习近平软弱的证据，但由于他是前总统和江泽民的直接继承人，这一点是可以预见的。
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习近平的重新开放赌注得到了回报，因为这次爆发并没有产生新的变数或反弹波。
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习近平在江泽民的葬礼上力图谨慎行事，但这可能是由于政治局有充足的时间为江泽民的去世做准备。
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胡锦涛参与悼念仪式是可以预见的，这不是习近平软弱的表现。
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科林-卡尔说，在间谍气球的背后，中国存在着 “重大的军民分歧”，这是对事件的一种误读
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隔离是中共统治的一个特点，而不是一个毛病
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外交部被中共高层冷落，甚至不屑一顾。
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解放军是中共统治的最终保障者，可以在中共的精英冲突中使用。
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认为解放军或其他强硬派破坏了布林肯的访问的说法是错误的。
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习近平已经看到，美国对中国的敌意是两党共同的，华盛顿发动了一场事实上的战争，以剥夺北京的野心并推翻中共的统治。
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相比之下，间谍气球似乎无伤大雅
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习近平不认为气球计划与希望布林肯访问有冲突
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政治局仍然相信，人民同意其选择。
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习近平已采取措施，让解放军回归正轨，现在是总司令。
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西方通过他们自己的视角误解了中国的挑战和选择。
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过去在胡锦涛的任期内，官僚主义的枝节一直是一个问题。
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垄断使高层得以扩大政策影响。
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虽然政治局犯了错误，但其结果与其他国家相似。
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习近平已经宣布了对COVID-19的胜利，相信人民同意这些选择。
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政治局不得不放松对COVID-19的控制，但这并不是一个令人尴尬的爬坡。
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疾病取得了胜利，造成了可预防的生命损失，但政治局认为这是正确的选择。
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美国在理解中国的政治制度方面并不成功，这导致了两国之间的紧张关系。
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美国总统乔-拜登和他的高级官员对美国和中国制度之间的差异没有表现出什么认识，这导致了误解和怨恨。
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对中国制度的不理解导致了两国外长之间的毒舌，以及中国即将驻华盛顿大使的警告，即这种行为 “严重影响和破坏了双方为稳定中美关系所做的努力和进展”。拜登政府坚持优先考虑政治得分的时间越长，就越难使关系回到正轨。
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Chinese President Xi Jinping secured a historic third term in October 2022, with many Western analysts heralding him as a modern-day emperor
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Recent events, including a messy exit from China’s zero-COVID policy and a rogue spy balloon, suggest Xi is on the back foot
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Xi is known for his propensity to make big bets, such as his anticorruption purge and his unapologetic stance on the world stage
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Xi’s big bets keep his adversaries, both domestic and foreign, off balance and limit the power of China’s bureaucracies
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The dilemma of isolating the bureaucracies too much and germinating autonomous fiefdoms has been turbocharged by Xi’s obsessive emphasis on party dominance
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Xi’s “political shock and awe” approach may make Beijing less dangerous than those pushing the narrative of a new cold war with China want to acknowledge
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It will take patience, confidence, and a steely commitment to a China policy rooted only in the national interest to find out the impact of Xi’s policies
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Western analysts have roundly condemned these innovations as ruinous for China and threatening to other countries, but it is too soon to make such confident judgments
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China suddenly abandoned its zero-COVID policy in late 2022, shocking many observers.
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Hopes for a “savior premier” were dashed when Xi’s yes men were appointed instead.
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Observers interpreted Xi’s decision to scrap the policy as evidence he was terrified by a few students holding blank pieces of paper.
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Xi gave adulatory funeral honors to former President Jiang Zemin, who died just days after the street protests.
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Xi and his Politburo allegedly feared Jiang’s death might provoke additional unrest.
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Analysis supposes Xi to be either a fool or a fanatic, when he clearly is neither.
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Xi likely began reconsidering the policy after the disastrous Shanghai lockdown.
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Xi appears to have decided to dump Hu Jintao’s allies from the Politburo in a surprise putsch.
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Xi needed to control as many risks as possible, so letting COVID-19 loose was not an option
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Xi made a bet to abandon zero-COVID, which paid off as there was no new variant that escaped China or rebound wave that many experts predicted.
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This allowed the Chinese economy to return to growth much earlier than expected.
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David Bandurski of the China Media Project observed the official treatment of Jiang’s death was far more ritualistic than revelatory.
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Politburo had ample time to prepare for Jiang’s demise, leaving it less concerned about protests.
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Hu’s involvement in the mourning rituals has been painted as evidence of Xi’s weakness, but it was predictable due to his status as former president and Jiang’s immediate successor.
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Xi’s reopening bet has paid off, as the outbreak did not create a new variant or rebound wave.
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Xi sought to tread carefully at Jiang’s funeral, but this was likely due to the Politburo having ample time to prepare for Jiang’s demise.
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Hu’s involvement in the mourning rituals was predictable, and not a sign of Xi’s weakness.
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Colin Kahl’s statement that there is a “major civil-military divide” in China behind the spy balloon is a misreading of events
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Compartmentalization is a feature of CCP rule, not a bug
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The Foreign Ministry is viewed with indifference, if not disdain, by CCP bosses
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The PLA is the ultimate guarantor of CCP rule and can be used in elite CCP conflict
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The notion that the PLA or other hard-liners sabotaged Blinken’s visit is misguided
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Xi has seen that U.S. hostility to China is deeply bipartisan and that Washington has launched a de facto war to deny Beijing its ambitions and overthrow the CCP
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Spy balloons seem inoffensive in comparison
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Xi does not see the balloon program as in conflict with wanting Blinken to visit
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The Politburo remains convinced that the people agree with its choices.
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Xi has taken steps to get the PLA back in line and is now commander-in-chief.
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The West has misperceived China’s challenges and choices through their own lens.
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Bureaucratic stovepiping has been an issue in the past under Hu’s tenure.
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Monopolies have allowed the high command to expand policy influence.
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Although the Politburo made mistakes, the outcome is similar to other countries.
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Xi has declared victory over COVID-19, believing the people agree with the choices.
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The Politburo has had to relax COVID-19 controls, but it is not an embarrassing climbdown.
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The disease has won, resulting in preventable loss of life, but the Politburo believes it was the right choice.
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The article discusses how the U.S. has not been successful in understanding the Chinese political system and this has caused tension between the two countries.
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The U.S. President Joe Biden and his top officials have shown little awareness of the differences between the American and Chinese systems, which has led to misunderstandings and resentments.
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The lack of understanding of the Chinese system has led to a toxic exchange between the countries’ foreign ministers and a warning from China’s soon-to-be ambassador in Washington that such actions have “severely impacted and undermined the efforts and progress made by the two sides to stabilize China-U.S. relations”. The longer the Biden administration insists on prioritizing political point scoring the harder it will be to get relations back on track.