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习近平一直在试图说服中国的企业家,在对私营部门进行了两年的打压之后,重新回到创办科技初创企业和重建国家经济。
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共产党对私营企业的攻击包括让亿万富翁马云闭嘴,限制房地产,以及对游戏、在线教育和打车等各个行业的全面限制。
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风险资本家在投资上踩下了刹车,创始人也从人们的视线中退缩。
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最新的麻烦迹象是科技行业的明星银行家包凡的失踪,他的公司表示他正在合作进行一项未指明的调查。
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这种令人毛骨悚然的消失对中国企业阶层的心理产生了重大影响,使他们感到中国政府总是可以找他们麻烦。
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Natixis公司亚太区首席经济学家埃雷罗Alicia Garcia Herrero表示,这导致私营部门变得更加谨慎。
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中国企业家、风险投资者和分析师对中国政府对待私营企业的态度表示担忧,这可能会对经济增长产生影响。埃雷罗估计,如果镇压继续下去,可能会使经济增长减少1%。由于与政府有关的风险,这家风险投资商在2022年没有投资一笔交易,深圳的另一家投资者在2022年只做了两笔投资。总体而言,去年的风险交易暴跌45%,至820亿美元。
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由于未来的不确定性,投资者们都很保守,而企业家们也在努力与格外紧张的官僚们周旋。尽管共产党领导人发表了令人欣慰的评论,但商业信心不足,人们普遍担心政府对私营企业的做法。
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这种做法的经济影响可能很大,经济增长可能减少1%。商业信心低迷,风险资本家不投资,风险交易暴跌45%。企业家们正在努力驾驭官僚机构,人们普遍关注北京对私营企业的态度。
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监管机构在长期冻结后于去年开始批准新的游戏项目,但香港一家游戏工作室的联合创始人Sherry表示,她的公司仍然处于监管空白状态。位于深圳的电子烟初创公司SnowPlus Tech的创始人Ray Xiao在监管变化后关闭了他在中国的所有400家直销店,并将其员工人数减少了60%。
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在中国做生意意味着要面对一个信息黑箱,没有明确的方法来赢得新产品的绿灯。肖现在专注于中国以外的市场以寻求增长。中国经济未来的成功取决于今年新上台的政治家骨干以及他们所实施的改革。
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保持中国经济增长所需的改革是提高工人的生产力,保持与美国的贸易和技术联系,并抵消人口老化的影响。如果新的领导人不能在这些关键领域取得成果,在市场自由化方面走回头路,并且对房地产危机处理不当,那么经济增长可能会下滑到接近每年2%。
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即将离任的李克强总理为今年设定了5%左右的增长目标,并敦促民间资本在政府的重大举措和项目上进行合作。
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北京在12月将私营部门的增长列为首要任务,将 "防止资本无序扩张 "的口号改为 “引导资本健康发展”。
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投资者为恢复正常而欢呼,中国的互联网巨头腾讯和阿里巴巴从12月初到1月底的总市值增加。
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滴滴出行全球公司也被允许回到中国的应用商店。
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然而,中国的巨头们都是以前的影子,阿里巴巴在最近一个季度只增长了2%,因为它专注于削减成本。
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中国应该 “集中优质资源,齐心协力”,在未来的关键技术领域取得突破性进展。
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政府的举措和项目旨在解决弱点领域,并重振被科维德蹂躏的经济。
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企业家和风险投资家正在关注得到中国政府祝福的行业,如半导体、人工智能和生物技术。
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许多人正在投资或加入工业和信息化部指定的 “小巨人”。
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一家名为Xtalpi的医药技术创业公司的创始人温书豪看到他的公司得到了越来越多的支持。
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春节过后,温书豪在深圳、广州和香港之间穿梭,以扩大他的业务,并预计他的收入将在2023年翻一番。
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总的来说,中国创业市场的信心越来越强,企业家和风险资本家投资于中国政府批准的行业。
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这使得许多公司,如温书豪的Xtalpi,能够扩大和发展其业务。
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由于与美国的紧张关系加剧,外国投资者对投资中国的初创企业越来越谨慎。
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2022年,对中国初创企业的美元投资占投入新公司总资本的19%,降至历史最低点。
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人们担心拜登政府可能会限制对中国经济某些部分的投资。
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中国媒体监管机构正在研究措施,以遏制年轻人对短视频的沉迷。
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ByteDance Ltd.和Kuaishou Technology的股价闻讯下跌。
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人们担心,一旦眼前的担忧得到缓解,中国政府可能会重新关注企业巨头。
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由于中国政府行动的不可预测性,外国投资者正在质疑中国的可投资性。
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这可能会对中国的投资环境产生长期影响。
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投资者也在关注投资中国初创企业的潜在风险。
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Xi Jinping has been trying to persuade China’s entrepreneurs to return to founding tech startups and rebuilding the country’s economy after a two-year crackdown on the private sector.
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The Communist Party’s assault on private enterprise included silencing billionaire Jack Ma, restrictions on real estate and sweeping restrictions on various sectors like games, online education and ride-hailing.
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Venture capitalists have slammed the brakes on investments and founders have retreated from the limelight.
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The latest sign of trouble is the disappearance of tech industry’s star banker, Bao Fan, with his firm stating he is cooperating in an unspecified investigation.
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The eerie vanishing has had a major influence on the psyche of China’s corporate class, creating a feeling that Beijing can always come after them.
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This has caused the private sector to be much more cautious, according to Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis.
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Chinese entrepreneurs, venture investors, and analysts are concerned about Beijing’s approach to private enterprise, which could have an impact on economic growth. Herrero estimates that if the crackdown continues, it could reduce economic growth by 1%. The venture capitalist has not invested in a single deal in 2022 due to government-related risks and another investor in Shenzhen made only two investments in 2022. Overall, venture deals plummeted 45% last year to $82 billion.
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Investors are being conservative due to the uncertain future, and entrepreneurs are struggling to navigate extra-jittery bureaucrats. Despite reassuring comments from Communist Party leaders, business confidence is low and there is widespread concern about the government’s approach to private enterprise.
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The economic impact of this approach could be significant, with a possible 1% reduction in economic growth. Business confidence is low, venture capitalists are not investing, and venture deals have plummeted by 45%. Entrepreneurs are struggling to navigate the bureaucracy, and there is widespread concern about Beijing’s approach to private enterprise.
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Regulators began to approve new gaming titles last year after a long freeze, but Sherry, a co-founder of a Hong Kong-based gaming studio, said her firm remains in regulatory limbo. Ray Xiao, founder of the Shenzhen-based e-cigarette startup SnowPlus Tech, closed all of his 400 direct-sales stores in China and cut his workforce by 60% after regulatory changes.
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Doing business in China means facing an information black box, with no clear way to win the greenlight for new titles. Xiao is now focused on markets outside of China for growth. The success of the Chinese economy in the future depends on the new cadre of politicians taking power this year and the reforms they put in place.
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The reforms needed to keep the Chinese economy growing are to raise worker productivity, maintain trade and technology ties with the US, and offset the effects of an aging population. If the new leaders fail to deliver on these key areas, backtrack on market liberalization, and mishandle the property crisis, growth could slump closer to 2% a year.
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Outgoing Premier Li Keqiang set a growth target of around 5% for this year and urged private capital to collaborate on major government initiatives and projects.
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Beijing named growth of the private sector as a top priority in December, replacing the slogan “prevent the disorderly expansion of capital” with “guide the healthy development of capital.”
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Investors cheered the return to normal, with China’s internet giants Tencent and Alibaba adding in combined market value from early December to late January.
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Didi Global Inc. was also allowed to return to Chinese app stores.
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However, China’s giants are shadows of their former selves, with Alibaba only growing 2% in the latest quarter as it concentrated on cutting costs.
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China should “pool quality resources and make concerted efforts” to achieve breakthroughs in key technology fields in the future.
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The government initiatives and projects are aimed at addressing areas of weakness and resuscitating the Covid-ravaged economy.
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Entrepreneurs and venture capitalists are focusing on sectors with Beijing’s blessing, such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence and biotech.
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Many are investing in or joining “little giants,” which have been designated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
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Wen Shuhao, the founder of a pharmatech startup called Xtalpi, has seen growing support for his company.
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After Chinese New Year, Wen zipped between Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong to expand his business, and is expecting his revenue to double in 2023.
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Overall, there is a growing confidence in the Chinese startup market, with entrepreneurs and venture capitalists investing in sectors that have been given approval by Beijing.
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This is allowing many companies, such as Wen Shuhao’s Xtalpi, to expand and grow their business.
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Foreign investors are becoming increasingly wary of investing in Chinese startups due to rising tensions with the US.
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US dollar investments in Chinese startups dropped to a record low 19% of total capital put into new companies in 2022.
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There is concern that the Biden administration may restrict investments in certain parts of the Chinese economy.
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Chinese media regulators are studying measures to curb addiction among youths to short videos.
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ByteDance Ltd. and Kuaishou Technology’s shares dropped on the news.
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There is a fear that Beijing may return its attention to corporate titans once the immediate concerns are ameliorated.
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Foreign investors are questioning the investability of China due to the unpredictable nature of Beijing’s actions.
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This could have long-term implications on the investment landscape in China.
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Investors are also looking at the potential risks of investing in Chinese startups.