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习近平称普京是他最好的朋友，而普京迫切需要中国的帮助。
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中国关于是否向俄罗斯提供武器的决定将表明它如何看待世界的未来。
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向俄罗斯提供武器的决定将表明中国认为与美国的紧张关系是不可避免的，而不提供武器的决定则表明紧张关系是可以控制的。
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北京有影响力的声音了解向俄罗斯提供军火的风险。
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前中国人民解放军上校周波写道，如果北京站在莫斯科一边，那将是 “第三次世界大战的黎明”。
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美国政府认为，北京正在就是否向俄罗斯提供武器进行一场严肃的辩论。
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中国的决定将对全球关系产生重大影响。
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它将表明中国如何看待世界的未来和美国在其中的作用。
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这一决定可能会阻止第三次世界大战的发生，也可能导致战争的发生。
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习近平和普京在2022年2月宣布建立 "无限制 "伙伴关系。
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这种伙伴关系是基于共同的分析，即美国是对他们的野心和政治制度的威胁。
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习近平访问普京的次数比其他世界领导人都多。
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习近平可能会增加对普京的支持，以避免出现最坏的情况，即亲西方的领导人取代他。
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一个被削弱和羞辱的俄罗斯将使美国看起来重新崛起，而中国则更加孤立。
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北京的一些人认为，美国届时将转向针对中国。
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增加对普京的支持是习近平保护其利益和避免俄罗斯出现亲西方领导人的一种方式。
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一个被削弱的俄罗斯将使中国处于弱势地位。
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中国认为，如果对付俄罗斯，美国会反过来对付它。
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中国可能愿意支持普京，因为相信他们有能力控制升级风险，并相信西方会推动乌克兰做出一个俄罗斯可以接受的和平解决方案。
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北京的民族主义者可能认为与美国的对抗已经开始，这是因为中情局的报告称习近平指示在2027年之前做好入侵台湾的准备。
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乔-拜登曾表示，如果受到攻击，美国将保卫台湾，如果西方不得不不断向乌克兰倾注资源，他们可用于保卫台湾的资源可能会减少。
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如果中国正在向入侵靠近，那么他们支持俄罗斯的战争努力也是有道理的。
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中国发展侵略台湾的能力和坚定地决定进攻台湾是有区别的。
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然而，如果西方的忧郁分析家们是正确的，那么西方可能有必要保持他们的资源来保卫台湾。
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中国向俄罗斯提供武器可能会导致华盛顿的反华情绪过度膨胀。
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美国可能会对技术出口施加更多限制和制裁。
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欧盟也会将中国的军事支持视为一种威胁，并可能对与中国的贸易和投资施加限制。
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中国政府意识到，西方企业和消费者对他们的依赖性太强，无法尝试完全的经济脱钩。
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中国可能会选择一种不安的妥协，在乌克兰表现为一个中立的和平调解人，并间接向俄罗斯输送武器装备。
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中国对俄罗斯的间接军事支持最终可能是通往同一目的地的迂回路线：与美国的直接对抗。
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这种支持可能过于局限，无法将战争的趋势转为对普京有利，而且容易被美国发现。
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Xi Jinping has called Vladimir Putin his best friend, and Putin is in urgent need of help from China.
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China’s decision on whether or not to supply Russia with weapons will indicate how it views the future of the world.
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A decision to supply Russia with weapons would suggest China believes tension with the US is unavoidable, whereas a decision not to give weapons would suggest tensions are manageable.
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Influential voices in Beijing understand the risks of supplying Russia with munitions.
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Zhou Bo, a former colonel in the People’s Liberation Army, wrote that if Beijing took Moscow’s side, it would be “the dawn of the third world war.”
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The US government believes there is a serious debate under way in Beijing about whether to supply Russia with weapons.
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China’s decision will have significant implications for global relations.
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It will indicate how China views the future of the world and the US’s role in it.
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The decision could either prevent a third world war or lead to one.
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Xi and Putin announced a “no limits” partnership in February 2022.
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This partnership was based on a shared analysis that the US is a threat to their ambitions and political regimes.
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Xi has visited Putin more than any other world leader.
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Xi might increase support for Putin to avoid worst-case scenario of a pro-western leader replacing him.
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A weakened and humiliated Russia would make the US look resurgent and China more isolated.
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Some in Beijing argue that the US would then turn on China.
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Increasing support for Putin is a way for Xi to protect his interests and avoid a pro-western leader in Russia.
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A weakened Russia would put China in a vulnerable position.
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China believes that the US would turn on it if Russia is dealt with.
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China may be willing to prop up Putin due to faith in their ability to control escalation risk, and the belief that the West will push Ukraine to make a peace settlement acceptable to Russia.
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Nationalists in Beijing may believe that confrontation with the US has already begun, due to the CIA’s report of Xi’s instructions to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.
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Joe Biden has stated the US will defend Taiwan if attacked, and if the West has to keep pouring resources into Ukraine, they may have less available to defend Taiwan.
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If China is moving closer to invasion, then it would make sense for them to support the Russian war effort.
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There is a difference between China developing the capability to invade Taiwan and making a firm decision to attack.
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However, if the gloomier western analysts are correct, then it may be necessary for the West to keep their resources available to defend Taiwan.
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China supplying weapons to Russia could result in overdrive of anti-China mood in Washington.
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US could impose more restrictions and sanctions on technology exports.
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EU would also view Chinese military support as a threat and could impose restrictions on trade and investment with China.
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Chinese government is aware that western corporations and consumers are too dependent on them to attempt a complete economic decoupling.
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Chinese may choose an uneasy compromise, presenting as a neutral peace broker in Ukraine and funneling weaponry to Russia indirectly.
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Indirect Chinese military support for Russia could ultimately be a circuitous route to the same destination: direct confrontation with America.
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-Such support may be too restricted to turn the tide of the war in Putin’s favour and vulnerable to detection by the US.