在中国握手伊朗,同美国签飞机大单,沙特王储的不结盟外交政策|华尔街日报

  • 沙特王储穆罕默德-本-萨勒曼正试图在美国、俄罗斯和中国之间保持中立,同时也在推行一项计划,以促进该国的国际商业存在。上周,他促成了沙特阿拉伯和其竞争对手伊朗之间的外交协议,以努力冷却波斯湾的紧张局势。他还在寻求利用当前的石油繁荣来资助该国的雄心壮志,并创造一个繁荣的非石油经济,因为美国领导的世界秩序受到了俄罗斯和中国的挑战。

  • 为了推进这一目标,穆罕默德王子最近宣布成立一家新的沙特国家航空公司,并正在与波音公司完成一项350亿美元的商用飞机交易。这项交易旨在提高该国在华盛顿的地位,并表明利雅得仍然与美国保持友好关系,尽管10月份石油减产,白宫指责利雅得与莫斯科结盟。

  • 随着以美国为首的世界秩序受到挑战,沙特阿拉伯是许多寻求优势的中等规模大国之一。穆罕默德王子的决策在过去一直受到批评,但最近的外交政策和商业行动显示了精明的实用主义。波音公司的交易也是对美国主要制造商的一个重大推动,为美国创造了数以万计的就业机会。

  • 沙特在全球的影响力越来越大,并愿意与美国的利益相抗衡,这是因为他们在油价高涨的情况下产生了强大的财政状况。他们的经济一直是全球增长最快的国家之一,而美国和许多其他国家正面临经济衰退。穆罕默德王子认为,沙特阿拉伯应该在世界舞台上拥有更大的影响力。

  • 利雅得一直认为他们最大的安全威胁来自德黑兰,而2019年针对沙特石油基地的无人机和导弹袭击更是强化了这一点。穆罕默德王子现在认为,沙特不能依靠美国的历史性安全保证,需要向东寻找更多的合作伙伴。

  • 为了保障其雄心勃勃的经济发展计划,穆罕默德王子一直在努力提高沙特阿拉伯的全球影响力。这是通过依靠其强大的金融地位和在东方寻找新的合作伙伴来实现的。

  • 中国已经帮助沙特阿拉伯建造了自己的弹道导弹,为核项目提供咨询,并投资于Neom等未来主义项目。

  • 俄罗斯与该王国签署了一项核合作协议。

  • 随着穆罕默德王子的迅速崛起,沙特阿拉伯的外交政策发生了转变,涉及干预、封锁和对官员的强硬手段。

  • 2018年,记者贾马尔-卡舒吉(Jamal Khashoggi)的谋杀案使穆罕默德亲王陷入了长期的外交孤立。

  • 拜登总统去年7月访问了王国,三位共和党议员上个月也访问了王国。

  • 乌克兰战争为沙特阿拉伯提供了一个机会,在一个美国不是无可争议的超级大国的世界里维护自己的利益。

  • 他们能够支持乌克兰,同时在欧佩克+中与俄罗斯合作。

  • 自10月以来,沙特官员一直试图在战争中保持中立立场

  • 穆罕默德王子派遣他的外交部长前往基辅和莫斯科提供援助和调解。

  • 分析人士认为,沙特正在利用与中国和俄罗斯更紧密的关系,为加深美国的安全关系获取筹码。

  • 沙特官员仍在谈判美国的安全保障,以换取与以色列关系的正常化

  • 沙特官员正在利用混乱来试图获得美国的让步

  • 在私下里,沙特官员表示,他们期望最终向美国施压以获得武器和核技术

  • 如果美国不采取决定性的行动,沙特不太可能退缩

  • 继续缺乏行动可能会导致西方在海湾和更广泛的中东地区的霸权的结束

  • Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is attempting to maintain neutrality between the U.S., Russia, and China, while also pursuing a plan to boost the country’s international business presence. Last week, he facilitated a diplomatic agreement between Saudi Arabia and its rival Iran, in an effort to cool tensions in the Persian Gulf. He is also seeking to use the current oil boom to fund the country’s ambitions and create a thriving non-oil economy, as the US-led world order is challenged by Russia and China.

  • To further this goal, Prince Mohammed recently announced a new Saudi national airline and is in the process of closing a $35 billion deal with Boeing Co. for commercial aircraft. This deal is aimed at boosting the country’s status in Washington and showing that Riyadh remains on friendly terms with the U.S., despite the October oil-production cut, which the White House accused Riyadh of aligning with Moscow.

  • Saudi Arabia is one of many middle-sized powers looking for advantages as the U.S.-led world order is challenged. Prince Mohammed’s decision making has been criticized in the past, but the recent foreign-policy and business moves demonstrate a shrewd pragmatism. The Boeing deal is also a significant boost to a major American manufacturer, creating tens of thousands of jobs in the U.S.

  • Saudi Arabia’s growing global influence and willingness to buck U.S. interests is due to their strong financial position generated by buoyant oil prices. Their economy has been one of the fastest growing globally, while the U.S. and many other countries are facing recessions. Prince Mohammed believes Saudi Arabia should have greater influence on the world stage.

  • Riyadh has always seen their biggest security threat as coming from Tehran, and this was reinforced by the 2019 drone-and-missile strikes against Saudi oil sites. Prince Mohammed now believes Saudi Arabia cannot rely on historic security guarantees from the U.S., and needs to look east for additional partners.

  • To safeguard his ambitious economic development plans, Prince Mohammed has been working to increase Saudi Arabia’s global influence. This is achieved by relying on their strong financial position and looking for new partners in the east.

  • China has helped Saudi Arabia build its own ballistic missiles, consulted on a nuclear program and invested in futuristic projects like Neom.

  • Russia has signed a nuclear cooperation deal with the kingdom.

  • Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy shifted with the rapid rise of Prince Mohammed, involving interventions, blockades, and strong-arming of officials.

  • The 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi precipitated an extended period of diplomatic isolation for Prince Mohammed.

  • President Biden visited the kingdom last July, and three Republican lawmakers visited last month.

  • The war in Ukraine has provided an opportunity for Saudi Arabia to assert its own interests in a world where the U.S. isn’t the undisputed superpower.

  • They are able to support Ukraine and work with Russia in OPEC+ at the same time.

  • Since October, Saudi officials have tried to maintain a neutral position in the war

  • Prince Mohammed dispatched his foreign minister to Kyiv and Moscow to offer aid and mediation

  • Analysts suggest that Saudi Arabia is using closer ties with China and Russia to gain leverage for a deeper US security relationship

  • Saudi officials are still negotiating US security guarantees in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel

  • Saudi officials are using confusion to try and gain concessions from the US

  • In private, Saudi officials have said they expect to eventually pressure the US to access weapons and nuclear technology

  • Without decisive action from the US, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to back down

  • Continued lack of action could lead to the end of Western hegemony in the Gulf and wider Middle East region

链接:Saudi Crown Prince Test Drives Nonaligned Foreign Policy - WSJ