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西方公司正在寻找一个 "中国加一 "的战略,而印度正在努力成为这个加一。印度拥有庞大的人口和劳动力,以及一个正在使商业环境更加友好的民主政府。苹果公司已经大幅扩大了在印度的iPhone生产,其他跨国公司也纷纷效仿。
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印度进步的迹象在南部泰米尔纳德邦的一个城市Sriperumbudur可见。丹麦的维斯塔斯公司是世界上最大的风力涡轮机制造商之一,由于预测印度将很快成为第二大涡轮机市场,以及希望摆脱中国的影响而在印度扩张。其他公司,如TPI复合材料公司也在跟进。
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印度仍然必须克服根深蒂固的问题,但它正在取得进展。自2018年以来,其制成品出口增长了两倍,其外国直接投资在十年内翻了一番。中国已经宣布与俄罗斯建立 "无限制 "的友谊,刺激美国及其盟友减少对中国的依赖,美国正在与印度 “加强一体化”。
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苹果公司一直在推动供应商向中国以外的地区多元化发展,并从2017年开始在印度组装低端iPhone机型。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)估计,到2025年,四分之一的苹果iPhone手机将在印度制造。印度官员希望,苹果的存在将鼓励其他公司前来。
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印度在克服一些商业壁垒方面取得了进展,比如对出口实行退税和关税,以及将政府服务数字化。富士康将在其位于印度城市钦奈附近的现有工厂扩大iPhone的生产。然而,与其他国家相比,印度仍被视为一个更难做生意的地方。
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印度出台了 “与生产挂钩的激励措施”,对目标产品进行直接补贴,并提高了进口关税,以国内生产的产品取代进口产品。由于工人不愿意长途搬迁,印度的制造业中心正在出现劳动力短缺。印度的工会比中国更强大。这些关税阻碍了进口许多部件的行业。
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国际货币基金组织指出,自 "印度制造 "启动以来,印度融入全球价值链的进程停滞不前,其制造业产出也有所萎缩。
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许多公司报告说,在试图投资印度时有不好的经历,甚至苹果公司的投资也是由于来自中国的推动。
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亚马逊去年秋天关闭了它在印度的一些企业。
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中国的经验表明,为受教育程度较低的农村工人,特别是妇女创造就业机会需要制造业。
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泰米尔纳德邦的奥拉电动车就是一个例子,它每年生产50万辆电动滑板车,并计划从2024年开始生产电动汽车。
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该工厂的员工几乎全部是女性,她们的家人为她们新发现的经济保障感到自豪。
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在过去的两年里,电动两轮车的新注册量增长到最近一个财政年度的684,273辆。
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Ola还为室内森林保留了两英亩土地。
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该工厂提供了一个例子,说明印度通过正确的投资和政策可以实现什么。
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Western companies are searching for a “China plus one” strategy, and India is making a push to be that plus one. India has a large population and labor force, and a democratic government that is making the business environment friendlier. Apple has significantly expanded iPhone production in India, and other multinational companies have followed suit.
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Signs of India’s progress are visible in Sriperumbudur, a city in the southern state of Tamil Nadu. Denmark’s Vestas, one of the world’s largest wind turbine manufacturers, is expanding in India due to forecasts that India will soon become the second-largest market for turbines, as well as a desire to diversify away from China. Other companies such as TPI Composites are following suit.
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India must still overcome entrenched problems, but it is making progress. Its manufactured exports have tripled since 2018 and its FDI is doubled in under a decade. China has declared a “no limits” friendship with Russia, spurring the U.S. and its allies to reduce dependence on China, and the U.S. is “strengthening integration” with India.
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Apple has been pushing suppliers to diversify beyond China and has been assembling lower-end iPhone models in India since 2017. J.P. Morgan estimates that a quarter of all Apple iPhones will be made in India by 2025. Indian officials hope that Apple’s presence will encourage other companies to come.
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India has made progress overcoming some business barriers, such as introducing tax and customs rebates for exports and digitizing government services. Foxconn is set to expand production of iPhones at its existing plant near the Indian city of Chennai. However, India is still seen as a more difficult place to do business compared to other countries.
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India has introduced “production-linked incentives” that directly subsidize targeted products and raised import tariffs to replace imports with domestically manufactured products. Labor shortages are emerging in India’s manufacturing hubs due to workers being reluctant to relocate long distances. Trade unions are stronger in India than China. These tariffs discourage industries that import many components.
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The International Monetary Fund noted that India’s integration into global value chains has stalled and its manufacturing output has shrunk since the launch of Make in India.
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Many companies report bad experiences when trying to invest in India, and even Apple’s investment was due to push from China.
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Amazon closed some of its Indian ventures last fall.
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China’s experience has shown that creating jobs for less-educated rural workers, especially women, requires manufacturing.
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Tamil Nadu’s Ola Electric is an example of this, as it is making 500,000 electric scooters a year and plans to make electric cars from 2024.
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The factory is almost entirely staffed by women, and their families are proud of their newfound financial security.
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New registrations for electric two-wheelers have grown over the past two years to 684,273 in the latest financial year.
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Ola is also reserving two acres for an indoor forest.
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The factory provides an example of what India could achieve with the right investments and policies.