分析:战狼外交效果好过头,中国外宣压制针对台海战事的炒作|日经亚洲

  • 在中国的互联网上,尽管审查制度收紧,但一直在进行一场引人注目的对话,讨论中国以武力统一台湾的可能性。

  • 这种观点被允许存在,表明中国领导层有意让它扩散。

  • 这些谈话很可能是对即将在日本举行的七国集团峰会以及在澳大利亚举行的四国峰会的回应。

  • 反对中国 "狼性外交 "的文章正在被转发和分享,强烈的标题强调了 "四线作战 "的危险。

  • 这四条战线包括台湾海峡、朝鲜半岛、南中国海和南太平洋,以及中印边境。

  • 最近的国际事态发展表明,如果中国军队必须在所有四条战线上作战,他们将被分散。

  • 这种情况让人想起二战前ABCD对日本的包围,当时美国人、英国人、中国人和荷兰人联合起来进行了一系列的禁运。

  • 在中国发生的谈话表明,中国人意识到了 "四线作战 "的危险性和类似包围的可能性。

  • 中国共产党长期以来一直在寻求统一台湾,但中国互联网上的谈话表明,对这一使命要谨慎。这可能是对即将在日本举行的七国集团峰会和在澳大利亚举行的四国峰会的回应。反对中国 "狼性外交 "的文章正在被分享,头条新闻强调了 "四线作战 "的危险。这四条战线包括台湾海峡、朝鲜半岛、南中国海和南太平洋,以及中印边境。

  • 这种情况让人联想到二战前ABCD对日本的包围,在中国的谈话表明,中国人意识到了类似包围的可能性。俄罗斯军队全面入侵乌克兰后,未能迅速占领乌克兰首都基辅,至今已有一年多时间。这引起了公众舆论的转变,一些中国人认为一场关于台湾的战争迫在眉睫。

  • 四线作战的说法被用来消除这种战争观念,甚至被证明对习主席很方便。然而,一些中国官僚和军官认为,现在就试图用武力统一台湾,将是一场非常危险的赌博。中国的富人特别担心他们资产的实际价值会下降。中国的父母不希望把他们的孩子送上战场。如果对台湾的战争迫在眉睫的印象深入人心,就会对外国公司在中国的扩张踩下刹车,更不用说引发中国资产外流了。

  • A remarkable conversation has been taking place on the internet in China, despite the tightening of censorship, about the possibility of China unifying Taiwan by force.

  • This view has been allowed to exist, indicating that the Chinese leadership intends for it to spread.

  • These conversations are likely in response to the upcoming G-7 summit in Japan, as well as the Quad summit in Australia.

  • Articles rejecting China’s “wolf-warrior diplomacy” are being reposted and shared, with strong headlines emphasizing the danger of a “four-front operation”.

  • These four fronts include the Taiwan Strait, the Korean Peninsula, the South China Sea and South Pacific, and the Chinese-Indian border.

  • Recent international developments suggest that Chinese forces would be spread thin if they had to fight on all four fronts.

  • This situation is reminiscent of the ABCD encirclement of Japan before World War II, when the Americans, British, Chinese and Dutch banded together for a series of embargoes.

  • The conversations taking place in China suggest that the Chinese are aware of the dangers of a “four-front operation” and the potential for a similar encirclement.

  • The Chinese Communist Party has long sought the unification of Taiwan, but conversations on the internet in China suggest caution in regard to this mission. It is likely in response to the upcoming G-7 summit in Japan and the Quad summit in Australia. Articles rejecting China’s “wolf-warrior diplomacy” are being shared, with headlines emphasizing the danger of a “four-front operation”. These four fronts include the Taiwan Strait, the Korean Peninsula, the South China Sea and South Pacific, and the Chinese-Indian border.

  • This situation is reminiscent of the ABCD encirclement of Japan before World War II, and conversations in China suggest that the Chinese are aware of the potential for a similar encirclement. It has been more than a year since Russian forces failed to quickly occupy Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, after the Russian military’s full-scale invasion. This has caused a shift in public opinion, with some Chinese believing a war over Taiwan is imminent.

  • The four-front argument has been used to dispel this war notion, and even proven convenient to President Xi. However, some Chinese bureaucrats and military officers are of the opinion that attempting to unify Taiwan by force right now would be a very dangerous gamble. Wealthy people in China are particularly worried about a decline in the real value of their assets. Parents in China do not want to send their children to battle. If the impression that a war over Taiwan is imminent takes hold, it would put the brakes on foreign companies expanding into China, not to mention trigger an outflow of Chinese assets abroad.