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在现有政策未能维持反弹的情况下,中国正在制定一揽子新措施来支持房地产市场。这些措施可能包括降低主要城市非核心区的首付,降低交易的代理佣金,以及进一步放宽住宅购买限制。政府也可能完善和延长去年实施的一些政策。
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这些潜在的措施激起了人们的希望,即中国政府将推出政策刺激措施,以重振摇摇欲坠的经济复苏。中国的房地产行业避免了崩溃,但仍然是拖累经济的一个关键因素。住宅市场正在出现重新疲软的迹象。
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在最初的消费活动爆发之后,中国的经济复苏在4月份失去了动力。接受彭博社调查的经济学家现在预计今年国内生产总值将比一年前增长5.5%,比之前估计的5.6%有所下降。4月份的房价增长也有所放缓。
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中国的房地产业面临着违约的风险,其债务相当于该国GDP的12%左右。
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为了帮助支持该行业,政府实施了一系列措施,如降低首次购房者的抵押贷款利率,为房地产佣金设置上限以促进需求,以及允许私募股权基金为住宅房地产开发筹集资金。
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对进一步政策支持的猜测导致中国房地产开发商的股价大涨,人民币对美元汇率也有所上升。
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亿万富翁王健林的大连万达集团有限公司一直在出售资产以获得流动性,同时寻求中国银行的贷款救济。
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中国恒大集团一直面临着一千多起诉讼,涉及3500亿元人民币。
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由于房地产业的低迷,在香港上市的股票已被送入熊市,并出现了一些信贷压力。
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国务院将延长购买电动汽车的激励措施,同时政府考虑将清洁汽车激励措施再延长四年。
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阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司和百度公司的涨幅超过2%,KE控股公司的涨幅高达8%。
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要确保经济复苏的坚实基础,仍有一段路要走。
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China is working on a new basket of measures to support the property market after existing policies failed to sustain a rebound. These measures could include reducing down payment in non-core neighborhoods of major cities, lowering agent commissions on transactions, and further relaxing restrictions for residential purchases. The government may also refine and extend some policies implemented last year.
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The potential measures have buoyed hopes that Beijing will roll out policy stimulus to reinvigorate a faltering economic recovery. China’s property sector has avoided a collapse but remains a key drag on the economy. Signs of renewed weakness are emerging in the residential market.
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China’s economic recovery lost momentum in April after an initial burst of consumer activity. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg now expect gross domestic product to expand 5.5% this year from a year ago, edging down from a prior estimate of 5.6%. Home price growth also slowed in April.
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China’s real estate industry is at risk of defaulting on a mountain of debt equal to about 12% of the country’s GDP.
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To help support the industry, the government has implemented a slew of measures such as lower mortgage rates for first-home buyers, capping real estate commissions to boost demand, and allowing private equity funds to raise money for residential property developments.
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Speculation of further policy support has caused a surge in the gauge of Chinese property developers, and the yuan has strengthened against the dollar.
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Billionaire Wang Jianlin’s Dalian Wanda Group Co. has been selling assets to generate liquidity, while looking for loan relief from Chinese banks.
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China Evergrande Group has been facing over a thousand lawsuits involving 350 billion yuan.
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Hong Kong-listed shares have been sent into a bear market due to the downturn in the real estate industry, and pockets of credit stress have been seen.
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The State Council is set to extend incentives for electric-vehicle purchases, while the government considers extending clean car incentives for another four years.
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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Baidu Inc. have gained more than 2%, and KE Holdings Inc. has rallied by as much as 8%.
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There is still a way to go to ensure a solid foundation for the economic recovery.